BlackBook - Thursday, 21 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 21 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


BALLARAT - Race 1

OTHER

After finishing 2nd on Sep 6, #5 RICK’S CAFE stepped out again over 1000m in Heat 16 on Sep 20 and won well in the fastest time of the day, going to the line alongside the more experienced Mr Tipla and in front of some other better than maiden grade horses. The 6yo mare is very lightly raced, having only had the 2 starts back in 2020 when with K Hann but has made the stable switch now and think she is one to watch first up in a country maiden. Expecting a good price too so we can have a spec. Jumping out well enough to suggest she can be competitive.


BALLARAT - Race 2

OTHER

Had an opinion of #12 WHITE STILETTOS prior to her debut as a 2yo, being a Written Tycoon filly out of Into The Mist who was a Group 2 winner over 1600m, but she was a bit disappointing. Returning here in Heat 5 on Sep 2, the now 3yo filly clocked the fastest 850m time of the morning (being 14x heats) where she travelled on speed but out very wide throughout before being asked for an effort in the straight and extending away. Expect to see the baldy face in another bit of work but this was an encouraging return.

#12 WHITE STILETTOS another nice jump out win in Heat 4 on Sep 21. She led them up and was held together until the 200m mark where she was given a push for 100m or so and looked to respond well. Looks to have come back improved as a 3yo and this was another bit of work. Expect her to go well first up this prep.


BALLARAT - Race 3

#8 I AM ENCHANTING (5) - D O'Brien

Putting a big watch on I AM ENCHANTING from Heat 6 on Sep 10. The 3yo filly went to the line untouched alongside some nice gallopers who are a lot better than maiden grade, which included Tokorangi (Group 2 winner), Mimi's Award (Group 3 winner) and More Secrets (undefeated 4yo). Only her first jump out but she looks to have come back really nicely as a 3yo now, keen to follow where she goes but we’re expecting another jump out first.

OTHER

Putting a watch on #2 GOT THE STYLE, with the 4yo mare just cruising to the line in 3rd in Heat 11 on Sep 2. She’s by Snitzel and a half-sister to the Group 1 placed (and Group 2 winning) mare Xilong as well as Pierro Belle. Only her first jump out.

We wanted to watch #2 GOT THE STYLE after a Sep 2 jump out, but very happy to say she has talent and will be very competitive on debut after a super win in Heat 5 on Sep 15 in the fastest time of the morning. The 4yo mare jumped beautifully here, went straight to the lead and never looked like being beat as she won by a good margin. She looks to be a slick mover, being by Snitzel and a half-sister to the Group 1 placed (and Group 2 winning) mare Xilong. Keen to follow.


A very good return from the 4yo mare #3 GREYT APPROACH, extending away in the straight of Heat 9 on Oct 5 to win by several lengths. She hasn’t found anything in her four career runs to date, but with the stable change to Dan O’Sullivan it was encouraging to see her respond to some riding here and really attack the line, even eased up on the line to record a victory in slick time. Want to see another jump out, but this was encouraging.


BALLARAT - Race 4

OTHER

#3 LOUISE FRANCES was the pick of Heat 1 on Sep 21, crossing the line first with 2nd pushed out chasing and a nice gap back to 3rd. It was this 4yo mare’s first jump out back this preparation, sitting on speed throughout and hitting the line untested. Happy to follow her into another bit of work before debuting.

It’s generally hard to get a gauge at the Warrnambool jump outs, but #3 LOUISE FRANCES has previously been mentioned and certainly moved well enough in Heat 4 on Oct 6 to suggest she might have enough talent to go close on debut. She went to the line with Pentire's Spirit (1 win from 6 starts) with Weekender chasing behind having recently ran in the Coleraine Cup. Not an outstanding bit of work, but she didn’t do any harm to our opinion of her. Watch for a country maiden.


If it wasn’t for the slow time, #12 RAVAGED AWARD would’ve been a highlighted runner despite finishing 4th (last) in Heat 6 on Oct 8. The 3yo filly was extremely hard held at the back of the field and looked ready to explode at any stage if asked for an effort, finishing alongside better than maiden grade gallopers in I Am The Mood and Eaton. This follows her 3rd in a Sep 23 jump out behind Zarina Bay (who ran 5th on debut). He’s one to follow, the time was the worry.

#13 SPEED LOVER had a quiet first jump out, but was way too speedy for them in Heat 6 on Sep 15 as she jumped straight to the front along the rail and led from start to finish in slick time, the second fastest of the morning. She was never asked for an effort here and did it quite easy in the end. She was a $160k purchase at the MM Perth Yearling Sales. Nice jump out, certainly want to see where she goes on debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Ballarat, Race 1 - RICK'S CAFE

Second up here as she steps up from 1300m to 1600m, which certainly suits especially after running the races fastest L200m and the 12th fastest L200m of the meeting. That race is the second best last start benchmark rating coming into this so if she runs to that again, she'll be one of the ones to beat and she draw's a lot nicer here with barrier 5 after settling last first up. Can run better than her price suggests and looks an E/W chance here - we'll have a small bet on her.


Ballarat, Race 2 - WHITE STILETTOS

We liked her way too much prior to her first up run to jump off after one run despite that run being and rating quite poor. In saying that, she did lose a plate and raced wide so might of had a few excuses. The 1000m also looked to be too sharp as she looked one paced and now steps up to 1400m second up which may suit her a lot more. Happy to have a small play on her and hope to see some sharp improvement.


Ballarat, Race 3 - I AM ENCHANTING (& GOT THE STYLE & GREYT APPROACH)

GREYT APPROACH's jump out at Ballarat on the synthetic was really good. Will Price on for Dan O'Sullivan is a good sign but she has only had the one 850m jump out so might need the run first up over 1200m here. She's opened up at a big price though and looks to be worthy of a small spec.


Thought I AM ENCHANTING looked to move really well in the jump outs when quietly ridden, Damian Lane sticking to ride here first up where she brings in the second best last start benchmark rating and the best peak benchmark rating. With barrier 5, she's drawn perfectly to get a lovely run and be in the finish.


GOT THE STYLE was a previous feature of our Top Performer, starting $2.40 first up but probably not handling the Heavy8 track. Comes back to the home track and that debut run is the third best last start benchmark rating, however she's drawn poorly with barrier 12.


Slightly worried about SEMILLA but she's drawn terribly and we can't ignore LADY OF HONOUR who looks to move well as well ahead of her return. Very even race, so we're going to spec our long priced runner and have a small play on our other ex-Star Performer who's second up but gets onto a good track. Leaving I AM ENCHANTING at the price.


Ballarat, Race 4 - LOUSIE FRANCIS, RAVAGED AWARD & SPEED LOVER

SPEED LOVER hasn't been seen for 5 weeks since that impressive jump out here at Ballarat on the synthetic. She had the 2nd horse covered easily, that horse being Frost Yourself (whose since ran 3rd and 1st in MDN's) and she also had the 3rd horse covered, being Race Against Time (who has since ran 2nd in a MDN). Super jump out form, just not sure what to make of the break in between?


LOUSIE FRANCIS is speedy and will most likely take up the lead from barrier 3. She jumped out alongside (and a lot better than) Bay Of Islands in her first jump out with that runner since running 1st in a MDN. Petani was 3rd in the jump out and came out and won a MDN at Hamilton on Tuesday as well. Another with super jump out form.


D Oliver sticks on RAVAGED AWARD, which is always a good sign and think barrier 8 allows her to take a sit on them to come over the top late. Was untested and hard held in the jump out and looked to have heaps to give.


We're glad OUR HEIDI got scratched as it now opens the race up. Ratings wise, KALEIDOSCOPE EYES brings in the clear best last start benchmark rating with some nice form from last start where she gapped 3rd by 4L when 2nd to a nice horse in Northern Melody. Barrier 13 is a big worry though. IN HER STRIDE brings in the next best rating and has been unlucky when running into some smart ones first and second up.


Very even bunch here with some good jump out form - really liked SPEED LOVER and LOUISE FRANIS who were hard to split, so backing them for an even return and also a bet on RAVAGED AWARD for a slight profit.


OUR BETS

We're trialling a new 'units' system to have a new way of recording and showing our bets and results. As a rule of thumb, we'll follow the following staking:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We had three bets in early markets, hopefully locking in some nice prices for our small specs and adding in some additional bets on our other runners. Total outlay is 5.75 units across the 4 races.


Ballarat, Race 1

#5 RICK'S CAFE ~ 0.25 units @ $15.00 (TAB) - early markets bet.


Ballarat, Race 2

#12 WHITE STILETTOS ~ 0.25 units @ $23.00 (TAB) - early markets bet.


Ballarat, Race 3

#3 GREYT APPROACH ~ 0.25 units @ $101.00 (TAB) - early markets bet.

#2 GOT THE SYLE ~ 1.00 units @ $7.50 (TopSport)


Ballarat, Race 4

#2 LOUISE FRANCES ~ 0.75 units @ $13.00 (TopSport)

#12 RAVAGED AWARD ~ 0.75 units @ $10.00 (TopSport)

#13 SPEED LOVER ~ 2.50 units @ $3.80 (TopSport)


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