Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 21 July 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
CRANBOURNE - Race 1
Big win by #12 STAR HUMMA, taking out Heat 6 on Jun 29 over the 900m in the third fastest time of the morning. This wins back up her easy win on Jun 15 over 600m in the second fastest time of the morning that day. A daughter of Zoustarthat was a $600k purchase from the 2021 Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale, she’s a half-sister to stablemates Humma Humma, Hummalong and Tycoon Humma, so plenty of talent in the family and the stable is clearly a big fan of the progeny of this mare. A filly to keep an eye on.
#14 YOU ESS ESS ARE has had no worries winning jump outs in her short career, her win in Heat 9 on Jul 11 over the 800m marking her fourth jump out win from five career jump outs, the other being a 2nd. Unlike her jump outs, she’s failed to bring this form to the races. Keeping an eye on her for another jump out, but have to tread carefully based on her previous form.
CRANBOURNE - Race 2
Becoming a broken record now, but #4 KING TOMMY won another jump out, taking out Heat 7 on Jul 8 to back up last weeks Jul 1 win and his previous 2x wins at the start of June. He’s a clear jump and run horse, clearly the quickest away here and wanting to go on with it early as he was held back and throwing his head around. He was put under pressure late here, looking to respond in encouraging signs. Treading carefully, but he’ll likely look the winner at some stage first up.
CRANBOURNE - Race 3
We mentioned Chris Waller’s Iffraaj gelding #7 READ following his 2nd placing in a Jun 10 jump out to Chalonne Princess, backing that up with his win in Heat 15 on Jun 24 where he lead from start to finish. He never got out of first gear here and just cruised to and through the line. He had this field covered quite comfortably, most of whom have won a race including Boadelle (8: 1-2-1) in 2nd, Canbya (7: 2-1-) in 3rd and Breton (13: 2-1-1) in 5th. He was a $50k purchase from the 2020 NZ Karaka Sales being out of an O’Reilly mare and we’re expecting him to go very well on debut.
CRANBOURNE - Race 8
This was smart by #15 PERI PERI RICH, the 4yo mare coming up the rail over 990m in Heat 19 on Jul 4 to win in the second fastest time of the morning with ease. She was a very impressive last start MDN winner by 3.75L (beating 3rd by 6.75L) where she clocked 58.52s that was quicker than the BM58 (58.84s) later in the day. She’s a talented mare that can go on with it now.
Confidence - Comments
Cranbourne, Race 1
Not a race we're too keen to get involved in - very even and not much separating the top 6 in the market. Could back both of our runners for an even return - probably ½ stake.
#12 STAR HUMMA (10) - J McArdle
#14 YOU ESS ESS ARE (4) - T Busuttin & N Young
Cranbourne, Race 2
#4 KING TOMMY (2) - M Ellerton
Looks like he's trending towards the jump out specialist tag, which isn't great, but those JO's were nice and this is a winnable race. From barrier 2, he'll go forward and the 1000m suits.
Cranbourne, Race 3
#7 READ (10) - C Waller
Mentioning this gelding 2UP as he was a Highlight runner on debut, running 5th while clocking the meetings fastest L200m. The step up to 1400m is a massive tick and Craig Williams jumps on board. He's the horse to beat - big watch on Bless Her Soul on debut. Not too keen on the ~$1.80 though, hoping he gets out closer to the jump.
Cranbourne, Race 8
#15 PERI PERI RICH (12) - M Huglin
Couldn't have jumped out any better, but has only had the 1x JO so she'll be giving fitness to a few of these and she's drawn out. Handled the wet track in the trial, but still a slight query on race day. In saying that, she can run well.
Last Updated: 8:47am on Thursday, 21st July 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
670x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.30 PLC
899x runners | 201x winners (22%) & 245x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.98 WIN $3.13 PLC
Recommend having a read of the below from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
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