Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 21 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
PAKENHAM - Race 1
#9 FERLAZZO won a NZ trial on Dec 21 prior to coming over to Aus, and it was a super trial win. She was untouched in a Apr 4 jump out when 5th but she was then way too good in her second Aus jump out, bolting in Heat 3 on Apr 11. Will note that the time listed is 53.20s, which was the near slowest of the morning and below the days average of 51.67s, but the way in which she won was impressive and coupling with her NZ trial win, she looks smart.
OUR THOUGHTS (BETS)
ISRAELITE BAY has been scratched from Pakenham and looks to be running tomorrow at Pakenham with Mark Zahra making the trip for only the one ride. We'll look to play, but she's sub-$2 currently and we can afford to wait for now.
Pakenham, Race 1 - FERLAZZO
ANTEQUERA jumped out well enough on Apr 8, with the winner in OCEANS ABOVE clocking 49.61s vs ALCHIAN's 49.93s in his win on Apr 8 as well. Thought ANTEQUERA was the pick of these on this day - it's interesting to note that it looked as though D Oliver rode but isn't on here. Happy to risk the others.
Our filly's latest jump out was super to the eye, but the time didn't exactly back her up. Her first VIC jump out on Apr 4 was probably only fair, fading late (under no pressure) to finish 5th. Barrier 6 here with Patrick Moloney booked to ride, would expect her to take up a forward position and give a good sight here. The wet (Soft) track is obviously a query, but it's a query for everyone and being from NZ, they generally handle the wet tracks okay - she's by Tavaci, whose last career run was a Group 1 win over 1400m on a Heavy track.
We're going to play as she looks a really good winning chance here - playing ½ on fixed this morning and ½ on SP as it wouldn't surprise us to see her backed in, but we'll be hoping for a bit of a drift closer to the jump (she might start closer to ~$3).
OUR THOUGHTS (NO BETS)
Newcastle, Race 5 - NEWLEY WED
She was entered for both Race 3 and Race 5 at Newcastle but has been scratched from Race 3 to run in Race 5. She is a very interesting runner. We were keen on her on debut where she finished 4th to Perceptive but had excuses. She then ran a close 2nd to Pagan second up, where they beat 3rd by 1.5L and Pagan has since been shipped off to Hong Kong.
She resumes here in NSW with no jump outs or trials in VIC or NSW, which makes it hard to get a gauge on her but on form and ratings, she'd go very well in either of these races.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Pakenham, Race 1
FEZLARRO ~ 0.75 units WIN @ Betfair SP (Betfair)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +10.44 units at Recommend Price | +43.96 units at Betfair SP
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