Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 20 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
BALLARAT - Race 1
#7 WONDERFUL TONIGHT (1) - M, W & J Hawkes
WONDERFUL TONIGHT is certainly back and she looks in super order. She’s put together two lovely jump outs now, a win on Oct 7 followed up by a close 2nd in Heat 7 on Oct 14 where they clocked the third fastest time of the morning. There is no doubt she’s got plenty of gate speed, jumping straight to the front in both of her jump outs now, going to the line under strong holds in both. As mentioned last week, her debut 3rd reads super not considering it was behind Zouzarella (1st) and Zapateo (2nd), so there is no doubt she has talent and it’ll be a matter of whether she’ll be ready to go first up after such a long spell. A $450k I Am Invincible mare, she looks in good order and we think she’ll be ready to go first up.
We mentioned the Mick Price owned and trained #8 CRIMSON DYNAMO was back at the jump outs and did herself no harm, winning Heat 6 on Oct 3 in good fashion. She showed lovely gate speed to lead throughout and liked that she was put under pressure from the 200m mark and opened up a little bit of a margin, albeit clocking slow time for the morning. Her Sep 19 jump out was nice as well and as a $155k daughter of Highland Reel, she can go well on debut.
HAWKESBURY - Race 4
#19 RED CARD was ordinary upon return when finishing last (12th of 12), but she slow to recover that day. She was given a 14-week let up, returning on Aug 22 where she recorded a dominant 4.31L win over 800m when leading from start to finish. Her work in Trial 13 on Sep 15 was just as impressive, again going forward to lead but travelling wide throughout as she cruised to the line to record an easy win in the end. She’s finished last in both career runs so far, which will be a slight query but we likely get a price as a result and could look at a small play.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Ballarat, Race 1
#7 WONDERFUL TONIGHT (1) - M, W & J Hawkes
Looks a lovely kick off point for this mares return - Jye McNeil on from barrier 1 where she's shown tremendous gate speed in her JO's, so she will almost certainly lead from there and be the one to chase down. If she runs to her debut, she just wins this.
It's hard to be with anything against her but can't be diving into ~$1.35 so monitor her price wise and look to play her late - hoping she drifts with that query on the long lay off but her form (and jump outs) are too good for this race.
#8 CRIMSON DYNAMO (6) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
Hard to have her over Wonderful Tonight here - either leave or save on her.
Hawkesbury, Race 4
#19 RED CARD (12) - J Cummings
No KAZOU in this race opens it up and the other scratchings result in this filly getting a start.
She's drawn poorly with barrier 12 but she did have barrier 10 first up where ran 2nd with a huge 4L gap back to 3rd - she was beaten by a smart stablemate only. She led that day and expect it to be the same here with her sticking at 1000m with the 1.5kg claim. Should be straight to front and she'll be the one to chase down.
Last Updated: 8:28am on Thursday, 20th October 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 693x runners | 211x winners (30%) & 221x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.18 WIN $2.30 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1029x runners | 243x winners (24%) & 282x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.27 WIN $3.04 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 28x runners | 19x wins (68%) & 5x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 53x runners | 22x wins (42%) & 15x placings (70%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 44x runners | 6x wins (14%) & 15x placings (48%)
Low Confidence: 7x runners | 2x wins (29%) & 2x placings (57%)
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):