BlackBook - Thursday, 20 January 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 20 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


WARRNAMBOOL - Race 3

#7 THE BIG HEIST (10) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

The Mick Price and Michael Kent owned THE BIG HEIST didn’t look out of place against some more experienced gallopers as he finished 2nd to Hint Of Mint in Heat 5 on Dec 21. Only his first jump out so keep an eye on him for another bit of work - he looked to have a nice big stride on him.


THE BIG HEIST put together another nice jump out to back up his Dec 21 (2nd) jump out behind Hint Of Mint, extending away late when given a push to win Heat 12 on Jan 5 relatively easy in the end. As mentioned previously, the 3yo gelding is solely owned by Mick Price and Michael Kent, so suspect they have a big enough opinion of him to keep ownership. He looks talented and is one to follow into his debut.


WARRNAMBOOL - Race 7

OTHER

#4 TUVALU has had 5 career starts for 3x wins (all by more than 2.5L) and 2x seconds. Those two seconds were both to I’m Thunderstruck… so there is no doubt about his form and talent. He wasn’t bustled about in his return jump out, finishing 2nd in Heat 8 on Dec 21 as he cruised to the line over the concluding stages. He’s an exciting 4yo and want to see where he can get to this preparation.

#4 TUVALU put together another impressive jump out, taking out Heat 14 on Jan 5 over the 1000m with ease.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Warrnambool, Race 3 - THE BIG HEIST

Noting that he ran past LAST GIRL LOVE in his latest jump out on Jan 5. Doesn't look like a race with a lot of depth either - runners #1 through to #3 have had a combined 25 starts for 0 placings, while most of the other runners have more than had their chance of breaking the maiden.

SPIRIT BEAST looks one of the main dangers having jumped out reasonably on Jan 10 and Dec 31 (behind Tributo who has since ran 3rd MDN). ANDRESS looks the other main danger, peaking now third up.


We actually had THE BIG HEIST noted down after an Aug 17 jump out win with the ears pricked in slick time where he was nominated for the Caulfield Guineas at the time. He didn't make it to the races and probably wasn't quite ready, but has been given more time now and looks like he might have some talent.


Expect him to sit in the second half of the field with barrier 10 of 14 and show that turn of foot late. The 1300m on debut looks suitable and he can make a winning debut.


Warrnambool, Race 7 - TUVALU

Wouldn't read too much into his last run as there was only three runners in the race. His two starts prior to that when 2nd to I'm Thunderstruck both times rated -9.2 and -11.5. While in his debut prep, his 7L debut romping rated +2.5 with his second up run rating -6.4. With ratings and form like that, coupled with the fact he'll go forward and lead from barrier 6 to be given every chance, he's going to be very hard to beat here.


If he some how gets out in price to ~$1.80, then he's worth a bet but very highly doubt that'll happen. Won't be getting involved at the ~$1.25 - happy to have no bets, sit back and watch him win.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 2.50 units.


Warrnambool, Race 3

THE BIG HEIST ~ 2.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP

*we also have a Bonus Back offer (if 2nd or 3rd) up to $50 with UniBet, which we recommend using - bet here.*


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +23.69 units at Recommend Price | +56.87 units at Betfair SP


When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.

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