BlackBook - Thursday, 2 March 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 2 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
KYNETON - Race 2
OTHER
Quite keen on #8 TRUST ACCOUNT second up from a form perspective and think his mid-prep jump out in Heat 12 on Feb 23 was just a tick over to have him really ready to go. We were on Imelda Mayhem at his first up run and admittedly he should’ve won as he went back to a clear and then had to weave his way through the field, powering home in the meetings 6th fastest L400m to just miss - no doubt if he settles closer he wins and knocks us off. Expecting him to be firing second up with this jump out a nice bit of work and think he’ll be hard to beat in most country maidens.
#15 SOLLOZZO was the pick of the bunch in Heat 12 on Feb 20 though, stalking South Of Houston throughout before showing a super turn of foot over the concluding stages to win. It was a super bit of work and adds onto his work on Feb 6 where he also closed superbly from last to win. This was his third jump out, so he certainly will be right to go first up this preparation where he’s resuming as a gelding, a key gear change that adds to his debut form where he was a $5 SP favourite in a race won by Grand Impact. He has talent and certainly has a maiden win in him, but certainly am mindful that he’ll need all of the 1200m and likely further. In saying that, he should be too classy for the regular mid-week country maidens (if he goes that way).
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Kyneton, Race 2 | Plan is to back SOLLOZZO and save on TRUST ACCOUNT to breakeven. |
#8 TRUST ACCOUNT (6) - P Payne | Low/Medium. He should've won first up when 2nd to Imelda Mayhem (luckily for us he didn't). He has had a slick JO since that run and looks ready to run super here 2UP as he steps up from 1100m to 1200m. Drawn closer here so hoping he settles a bit closer to the speed. If he gets back again, he's going to need some luck. He looks the main danger to SOLLOZZO. |
#15 SOLLOZZO (1) - G Begg | Medium. He's been gelded since his ordinary debut run and has looked super at the Trials/JO's in the gear up for his return. He's done everything under his own steam and looks to have a very nice turn of foot. Quite worried about barrier 1 though as he hasn't led in any of his jump outs and in a field of 14 at Kyneton, he could be in a world of hurt if doesn't get the gaps late. In saying that, he looks the best horse in the race and we're going to have to back J Childs in. |
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Kyneton, Race 2 #2 COSMIC ENIGMA (12) - R Cully | BlackBook jump out comments: COSMIC ENIGMA doesn’t have a great racing pattern based on his debut run where he went to a clear last and powered home to just miss. He did similar in Heat 13 on Feb 23, settling to the back and powering to the line out wide in a nice bit of work. This mid-prep jump out following a 5-week freshen up will have him ready to go second up. |
Kyneton, Race 3 #6 ANGEL OF BOOM (4) - D Dunn | BlackBook jump out comments: ANGEL OF BOOM looked good at the jump outs again, winning Heat 10 on Feb 22 over the 750m in the fastest time of the morning and the second fastest time overall, so she was flying here. Thought she was only fair first up for the new Dylan Dunn stable at Pakenham, finishing a distant 7th but the form has certainly stacked up. The winner was Nunthorpe (won a CL1 next start) with Shaime in 2nd (won MDN next start), 3rd and 4th haven’t ran since but Lievore was 5th (since 1st in MDN & BM64) and Reo was 6th (since 1st in MDN & CL1). This was only 750m so would generally y prefer to see another bit of work so we’ll keep an eye on where she pops up next, race or jump out. |
Pakenham, Race 1 #4 WARMOSA (1) - A Garraway | BlackBook jump out comments: Four jump outs for four wins now for WARMOSA, split into two preps. This 3yo gelding put a big space on them in his first jump out on Feb 7 where he led before being put under pressure over the concluding stages to open up a big margin late. His win in Heat 8 on Feb 21 had a similar racing pattern here where he went forward but was given a bit of an easier time late but was still given a few reminders and responding. He can’t really do much more at the jump outs and is certainly worth keeping an eye on for his debut. Think he's worth monitoring to see what price he gets to closer to the jump - if he gets out to $10/12+, think he's worth a ½ stake spec. |
Pakenham, Race 1 #6 KIKO (2) - J Conlan | BlackBook jump out comments: KIKO is a maiden but is also Group 3 placed and last start was a 1L 5th in a Group 3 at Flemington behind Ruthless Dame, Nanagui and Mumbai Jewel, which is very good form for a maiden. This 3yo Capitlist filly returned in an official trial on Feb 6 where she was given a very easy time by Craig Williams, sitting out the back along the rail throughout and just cruising to the line. She sat off the speed in Heat 7 on Feb 22 over the 1000m as she took over at the top of the bend before being challenged by a whipped Eye Of The Eagle, and liked how she responded to that challenge and kicked back to win under only some slight urgings. She can go well in a maiden first up. |
Last Updated: 8:27am AEDT on Thursday, 2nd March 2023.
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STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB
