BlackBook - Thursday, 19 May 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 19 May 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY


STAWELL - Race 1

OTHER

#3 CHAMPAGNE SHOOTER was beaten a long way in her first 800m jump out on Apr 26, but she was slowly away and never in it. She jumped a lot cleaner in Heat 12 on May 10 and really caught the eye as she travelled on speed and recorded a nice victory in ~average time for the day. She’s a good looking filly and want to monitor where she pops up on debut.


STAWELL - Race 2

OTHER

#9 EXCUSEZ MOI kept with Emperor’s Star over the 700m throughout Heat 4 on May 10. That runner was under more jockey pressure and did have race-fitness having had the 2x runs this prep, so a very encouraging return for this 3yo filly. She was close up in her only 2x career runs, so one to monitor now coming into her second career prep.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

OTHER

#14 BREAKING GROUND is a potentially nice 2yo colt for Chris Waller. Although it was nearly the slowest time of the morning, the son of Snitzel’s win in Heat 5 on Apr 22 was that of a horse that had some talent, leading from start to finish to record a soft win. He had a previous jump out on Apr 8 that showed his versatility as he sat midfield with cover there before really attacking the line hard and making good ground past the line under a strong hold. We’ll be monitoring where he goes from here.

Another nice well held jump out from #14 BREAKING GROUND, his 3rd placing in Heat 2 on Apr 29 marking the third jump out this preparation following jump outs on Apr 8 and Apr 22. He just cruised throughout todays jump out while under a super strong hold from the jockey and although he finished 3rd, he looked as though he easily could’ve kicked away to win. Nice moving Snitzel colt.


PAKENHAM - Race 4

#5 TREOTTO (11) - M Kent

Starting to sound like a broken record now, but would be surprised if TREOTTO lost on debut. He was entered in at Sale last Wednesday but was a late scratching where he was fractious in the barriers and became cast, forced to head back to the jump outs again. His win in Heat 6 on May 2 a result of this as he just cruised and was clearly a class above. He led and couldn’t of been given an easier time. Very keen on him.


Another super jump out by TREOTTO in Heat 2 on Apr 19, although he finished 2nd over the 990m here as he was no match for Riverplate late, a Busuttin runner who has finished 2.6L off a Group 3 and 2.4L off a Group 2 prior to running in the Caulfield Guineas. He showed tremendous gate speed again to lead and went to the line under a hold with ease where they clocked 58.20s, a very slick time. He beat home Quraysha in that first Mar 21 jump out with that runner coming out and winning impressively by 1.2L first up, so there is some nice form from the jump outs too. He’s going to be very hard to beat in a maiden on debut.


HAWKESBURY - Race 4

DIAMOND FLARE - Mark Newnham

May 2 (Randwick) - 3yo grey gelding with only the 1x start back in May 21 when 4.71L off In The Congo, which is form that certainly reads well now with 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th and 9th all winning in their next two starts - he’s had 6x trials since that debut run though, with 3x coming this prep - this was his most impressive, jumping straight to the front and kicking away around the turn to win by 5.74L in 1:04.94s, the second fastest time of the day and above the days average of 1:05.49s - he’s the younger half-brother to Mildred that was a $400k buy from the Magic Millions sale prior to being sold at the Inglis sales for $100k to Mark Newnham - big watch this prep.


THE ROCKWELL SCALE - Matthew Dunn

Apr 22 (Warwick Farm) - clocked 48.18s vs days average of 48.75s - second classy all the way win for this 3yo gelding, showed good gate speed and went to the line under a hold - was a $150k buy - was 3rd on debut to Fluctuate who then won a CL1 at next start - one to watch first up in his second career prep.

*Held off Oryx here, who then won first up at Hawkesbury

 
BLACKBOOK SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Hawkesbury, Race 4

Think we can back both our runners for even returns here.

#3 DIAMOND FLARE (3) - M Newnham

Medium - has been gelded, big tick and trials were nice - looks a good winning chance, can back $4+.

#8 THE ROCKWELL SCALE (4) - M Dunn

Medium - trials were slick, can take the $6 on TopSport.

Stawell, Race 1

#3 CHAMPAGNE SHOOTER (4) - M Cumani

​Low/Medium - not too keen to get involved, Senegalia looks very hard to beat fourth up now after finishing 1L off In Her Stride last start (who has won again since).

Stawell, Race 2

#9 EXCUSEZ MOI (11) - A Noblet

Low - barrier makes it hard and the 1300m first up off only 1x JO isn't the best set up, looks a small E/W chance - if she continues to get out though, will have a small play personally.

Pakenham, Race 1

#14 BREAKING GROUND (9) - C Waller

Medium - SCR a few times look for the right race - the big track at Pakenham should suit him, expecting a big debut - Brett Prebble only has the 1x ride at Pakenham too.

Pakenham, Race 4

#5 TREOTTO (11) - M Kent

High - see below.

Pakenham, Race 6

#5 PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE (2) - G Begg

High - she's a filly worth following - see below.

Pakenham, Race 1 - BREAKING GROUND

A quick note on BREAKING GROUND - he is a Snitzel colt that is a half-brother to Gypsy Diamond (by Not A Single Doubt), who Yu Long Investments purchased for $1.3m as a Broodmare back in 2018, so they clearly have a big opinion of the family. Gypsy Diamond was a Group 2 and 3 winner over 1600m (and a Group 3 winner over 2000m) while also being 2nd in the Group 1 Queen of the Turf.

Our Extreme Choice filly (that is at the breakers currently) is out of the mare Talita, who is out of the mare Kalika that is the half-sister to Gypsy Tucker, the dam of BREAKING GROUND. Kalika is also a half-sister to Darook Park, who is the dam of Group 3 winner Finance Tycoon. So we're certainly hoping BREAKING GROUND runs well here with that (long-ish) relation to our filly!


Pakenham, Race 4 - TREOTTO

We were too keen on him on debut to jump off him after only the one career run. His debut rated +0.5, which is the best last start rating and the best peak rating of this race. He also ran the meeting’s fourth fastest L200m as well as the meeting’s second fastest L600m/L400m (behind the winner, Nice For What). The step up from 1000m to 1200m suits and the big Pakenham track will also suit a lot more than the tight turning Cranbourne track he had on debut.


Post the scratchings, the only real dangers look to be Indy Rose Warrior (who he had covered comfortably last start) and Celsius Star. He should be going very close here.


Pakenham, Race 6 - PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE

Big debut from this 3yo filly. It was only a field of 4x runners, but she bolted in by 6L and clocked the meeting’s fastest L600m and L400m of the meeting (and the 6th fastest L200m but she was eased down). She won in 1:07.32s, which was faster than the other 2x maiden’s on the day that were won in 1:08.76s and 1:08.40s. The run rated +0.5, which is the best last start rating of this race and the third best peak rating of this race - she has plenty of improvement to come still.


Simply Venus (2nd by 6L) and Press For Victory (3rd by 8.75L) both ran in Race 2 at Moe on Tuesday, but were beaten quite easily and could only manage 5th and 7th respectively.


Last Updated: 8:19am on Thursday, 19th May 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

661x runners | 198x winners (30%) & 209x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.33 WIN $2.31 PLC


'Other' Runners:

778x runners | 172x winners (22%) & 213x placings (49%)

Ave Betfair SP | $13.28 WIN $3.13 PLC

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NOTES

Confidence levels will be as follows:

  • Low = not keen to bet.

  • Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).

  • Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.

  • High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.

  • Special = very keen, should be winning.

Any questions / feedback / issues, please send us a message on Twitter or email us. Appreciate it.


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