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BlackBook - Thursday, 19 January 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 19 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 6

#2 DISTORTED MISSION (10) - S Zahra

Medium.

Thought his two jump outs at Flemington on Dec 16 and Dec 24 were actually quite good but in that latest JO he took a bit to get going, which indicated to us he needed a bit of distance, but once he did get going he really powered to the line. He went around over 1200m at Cranbourne first up when resuming gelded, travelling 3-wide without cover throughout as the eventual winner in Mighty Sapphire just tracked on the back of him and got him late. He will take plenty of improvement from that and the step up from 1200m to 1400m is very suitable, so he’s now at a bit more of distance that we thought he would be competitive at after his jump outs.


Barrier 10 of 11 isn’t great, but Pakenham is a big track and if he can get a spot not too far off the speed, then he should be coming home late really strongly and looks a good winning chance, especially at the price.

Last Updated: 8:10am AEDT on Thursday, 19th January 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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