BlackBook - Thursday, 18 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 18 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.

MORNINGTON - Race 3

#10 THAT CONTAGEOUS (15) - M Laurie

THAT CONTAGEOUS has now won three jump outs and looks primed to make a winning return to the races, potentially now as a gelding. He debuted as a 2yo behind Artorius, where he finished 7th beaten by 7.15L and immediately spelled. He’s return to win a jump out on Oct 13 ahead of subsequent 3.5L maiden winner Unflinching before winning a jump out on Oct 27 and then again in Heat 8 on Nov 3 where he was way too speedy when leading throughout and really strung the field out. He clocked nice time in the process too and was still extending away past the line. Some impressive bits of work and we think he can make a nice return to the races on the back of these.

OTHER

#14 THE BALLET DANCER looks to have a nice turn of foot and has shown it in a couple of jump outs now. She sat on speed in her Oct 15 jump out, similar to her work her in Heat 12 on Nov 1, extending away late as she was asked for an effort and really putting the field away quite comfortably. Liked the turn of foot and think she's one worth keeping in mind.

OUR THOUGHTS

Mornington, Race 3 - THAT CONTAGEOUS (+ THE BALLET DANCER)

A very key gear change here of him resuming gelded. If he didn't draw barrier 15 of 18, this would be near perfect (although he comes into 12 now after scratchings). He's had the three jump outs, all nice wins and looking super, so there will be no worries fitness wise first up. He also brings in the best last start benchmark rating and the second best peak benchmark rating from his debut 7th to Artorius at +4.6. He just needs to have come back improved as a gelding to be very competitive here. In saying that, the wide barrier might be okay as he will most likely push forward and if he can get over, he won't have any worries being trapped in and should have plenty of room to move late. He's the one to beat.

THE BALLET DANCER has jumped out well and has been scratched a few times in looking for the right race without too wet conditions. CULTURAL ICON jumped out on the same day as THAT CONTAGEOUS, but clocked 49.77s vs 48.04s while CITIZEN clocked 48.01s but was 3rd in that heat - he's jumped out well but hasn't been a stand out for us.

We're with THAT CONTAGEOUS on a high confidence play - we were happy to take the early markets ~$3.60 available and think the $3.30 still available this morning is good to take. Wouldn't surprise us to see him shorten to sub-$3 come the jump. He should be hard to beat here.

Happy to have a saver on THE BALLET DANCER to breakeven at the $5 currently available. She's our second pick.

Hawkesbury, Race 2 - PETULANT

Our original #BlackBook comments are as follows:

Oct 22 (Rosehill) - jumped clearly the best, straight to the front before being joined by a couple of others and then kicked away around the bend to put lengths on them besides the 2nd horse who was ridden out, a big 6L gap to 3rd - super trial, did it very easy.

The sub-$2 is too short for us considering this isn't a Maiden race, she's on debut against the older horses with a lot more experience and fitness and she's only had the one trial so not sure where she's at fitness wise. She might very well be too good, but too short for us to consider playing under the circumstances and queries. No bets here.

Hawkesbury, Race 4 - PIZARRO

Our original #BlackBook comments are as follows:

Oct 8 (Randwick) - really nice by this 3yo gelding, a half-brother to Bonvicini who was a Group 3 winner over 1400m - had the inside barrier, was ridden with no urgency early and just dropped back to a clear last before rocketing home in the straight to somehow finish within 1L of the winner, would’ve made up over 5L with ease - looks smart.
Oct 19 (Randwick) - another super trial, travelling sweetly in some traffic midfield before finally getting some clear galloping room in the straight and coming home super - he’s smart.
Nov 11 (Randwick) - his third trial now, all of them impressive - he was ridden cold, hard held at the back of the field but the jockey couldn’t hold him as he slowly made ground out wide - he closed super over the L600m to get up and win - he’s ready to debut and will be fit and ready to go - keen to follow.

Ratings wise, CLEMENCEAU is the one to beat - brings in the best last start benchmark rating at -2.3 and has trialled well in the lead up to this, although only having the one trial so a query on fitness and also a query on if the 1100m is short of his best trip.

PIZARRO looks to be flying at the trials ahead of his debut though - with the three trials, including his latest at 1045m at 1080m, he should be ready to go here with James McDonald booked to ride. The worry is the barrier (now 10 after scratchings) and if he gets too far back to make ground. Think the $2 now available is a bit short and happy to sit this one out - if he got out to $3ish late, then consider having a small (low confidence) play.

OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.15 units.

Mornington, Race 3

THAT CONTAGEOUS ~ 2.50 units WIN @ $3.60 (TAB at 11:00am Wed) or $3.40 (Bet365 at 8:23am Thu)

THE BALLET DANCER ~ 0.65 units WIN @ $5.00 (TopSport at 8:23am Thu)

Overall: +2.38 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).

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