Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 18 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
ECHUCA - Race 3
Huge watch on the Savabeel filly in #12 DUVACH. She’s a full-sister to Group 1 winner in Pasadena Girl and comes from the same Aug 1 jump out as Jovial Wagon where she finished 3rd, but if you watch past the line, she makes really good ground on the winner late. She showed that nice late closing speed again in her win in Heat 23 on Aug 9, closing beautifully under the guidance of Jamie Kah who just sat motionless throughout. She clocked the third fastest 990m time of the morning in the process too, effortlessly. A $525k Magic Millions purchase, she looks to have some talent and hopefully can be even just half as good as her sister…
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Echuca, Race 3
#12 DUVACH (1) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
She jumped out super and with her price tag and breeding, there will be high expectations on this filly when she debuts here. She's certainly been well found though and not too keen on taking ~$1.65 for her. We'll monitor her price and play late, looking for ~$2+ but even if she doesn't get to that price, expect her to run very well.
One for the futures, her full-sister in Pasadena Girl ran 4th in the Oaks so we might see Price/Kent's Oaks hope debut here, similar to their colt Cadazio the other week. She's $81 on Sportsbet - $51 on TAB.
The below aren't #BlackBook runners or recommended bets (unless stated), but are those we have notes on and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing (i.e. quaddie's etc).
Echuca, Race 1
#9 RASPUTINA (4) - M & L Kavanagh
Hawkesbury, Race 3
#12 SUMATRA (3) - J Cummings
Dean mentioned her on our 'The Early Bird' show as her trial on Jun 21 was super and her latest over 1080m on Aug 2 was just as good. She looks in super order ahead of her return here.
She was scratched from Canterbury yesterday (with J-Mac riding) to run here and this is an easier assignment - no J-Mac on board due to the weight at 55kg, so she gets Sam Clipperton. She'll run a nice debut race here.
Last Updated: 8:36am on Thursday, 18th August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
676x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 213x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.31 PLC
951x runners | 217x winners (23%) & 262x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.63 WIN $3.09 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):