BlackBook - Thursday, 17 November 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 17 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MORNINGTON - Race 2
A third jump out now for #9 BEL THRONUM and it was another nice bit of work. She left the gates well in Heat 5 on Nov 9 and showed some nice early speed to take up the lead along the rail and led from start to finish to win with relative ease in the end where she was put under no pressure. Having had a two previous jump outs on Oct 12 over 900m and Nov 2 over 750m, this bit of work over 1050m will really tip her off and have her primed for her return to the races. She’s a filly that can go well when resuming.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Mornington, Race 2
#9 BEL THRONUM (5) - J Hunter
She’s had the three jump outs, so she should be forward enough here for 1000m especially with the latest coming over 1050m. She debuted on a Heavy track as well, so the wet shouldn’t be much of a query (although it is only a Soft(6)) and she has that race experience advantage, plus this is her home track (but a few are also at their home track).
Barrier 5 with D Stackhouse aboard, expecting her to push forward and be right up there, which you need to be at Mornington, and if so, she will get every chance and is a very good winning chance.
Happy to be with her, she will run well.
Of the rest, none really stood out but am mindful of Trust Bill who has looked okay in recent JO’s.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Mornington, Race 4
#12 ELLY DEE (10) - J Sadler
She featured in our WatchList, with our comments as follows:
"She was ridden out, but didn’t mind the way ELLY DEE closed on Magical Slipper in Heat 5 on Nov 8, especially considering she was a very impressive 3.2L maiden winner in her previous prep. One to keep an eye on."
Thought that latest JO was quite handy work and like that she had a quiet JO first and then was scrubbed along in that latest and responded to riding, which will really bring her on for the debut here.
Musashi bolted in that latest JO but thought he had the blinkers on there, which he doesn’t have here, and his previous JO’s without the blinkers were pretty ordinary. Isdell ran well on debut, but didn’t set the world alight.
She looks a good E/W chance here and was happy to be with her at the $6/$2.
Hawkesbury, Race 1
#6 KISSING SUPIDO (8) - T Bartley
Last Updated: 8:26am on Thursday, 17th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 698x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1057x runners | 254x winners (24%) & 289x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.14 WIN $3.02 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 35x runners | 23x wins (66%) & 7x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 64x runners | 28x wins (44%) & 17x placings (70%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 55x runners | 9x wins (16%) & 18x placings (49%)
Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):