BlackBook - Thursday, 17 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 17 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


KYNETON - Race 2

OTHER

#12 MESCHEVER was back at the jump outs after a 5-week freshen up, winning Heat 9 on Feb 18 and it look as though the nose roll went on here. He looked good here but probably wasn’t quite as slick as his jump outs prior to his debut. In saying that, we do think he has the talent to win a maiden and his form backs that up. His debut 2nd to Lord Paramount (since won BM58 by 4.2L) ahead of The Globe (since won MDN) certainly reads well and his second up run also reads well. The winner Grinzinger Prince has since won a BM64, the Mystery Eclipse (2nd) and Loudun (3rd) raced against each other next start when 2nd and 1st respectively and put a 2L gap on 3rd (Mystery Eclipse then won her next start after this) while 6th in Mr Freeze has also since won. Winners all around him, we’re following him into another maiden next start.


KYNETON - Race 3

OTHER

We were very keen on #1 BELLUNA on debut at a big price and she was very disappointing, finishing 10th by 7.5L but she did pull up with a slow recovery after only having one jump out (5 weeks) prior to her debut. She returned in Heat 4 on Feb 15, finishing 2nd to Ashford Street with a huge gap back to 3rd. She’s got lovely gate speed, leading throughout this heat and being pushed along late, which should really bring her on. We’d love to see another jump out to get a real gauge on her and have her primed for her return as we do think she has talent.

*resumed off only the 1x jump out, will take improvement from that and expect a better run here second up*


Smart win by the returning 3yo filly #9 SENEGALIA in Heat 11 on Feb 28. Despite being a little slow away, she was able to muster up speed to get to the lead along the inside and then kick away in the straight to record an easy win. Ignore her latest run last preparation on a Heavy track at Pakenham, she clearly didn’t handle the conditions, and judge her based on her two placings in her first two career runs (ratings of +5.7 and +2.7), which will stack up most places. She had a quiet jump out on Feb 15 and now looks primed to make a return to the races where she’ll go well in most maidens.

*deserves to be favourite but it's hard to dive into sub-$2 with enough confidence - one to beat but no thanks at the price*


PAKENHAM - Race 1

OTHER

This was a very impressive return. A 5yo gelding that’s very lightly raced with only the two starts, #4 HARMSWORTH was a big eye catcher with his win in Heat 9 on Feb 1 with the big baldy face and white socks. He’s a good look Written Tycoon gelding with a nice action. He hasn’t been seen for almost 12 months so look for another jump out prior to resuming for the new Michael Kent yard.


PAKENHAM - Race 2

OTHER

The Michael Kent trained #4 GIRELLO had a 9-week freshen up after being a Star Performer and previous feature for us. He returned to finish a quiet 3rd in Heat 8 on Jan 10, where he was very quietly ridden along the inside and looked to move really smoothly. He looks talented and keen to see where he goes on debut.

Previously mentioned in our reviews under his breeding Reward For Effort x Mrs Tangles, he’s now been gelded and named, finishing 5th in Heat 8 on Feb 1 under #4 GIRELLO. He just had a quiet well-held jump out here, cruising throughout under a strong hold midfield while some more exposed gallopers in Extreme Warrior and Prix De Turn took the heat out. Huge watch on this 3yo (now) gelding, he looks to be a really nice mover.


PAKENHAM - Race 6

OTHER

#2 KAPALUA SUNSET travelled beautifully to a comfortable win in Heat 5 on Feb 25 ahead of Not An Option and Influential Jack. She’s a really classy mover and this was a lovely return.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Kyneton, Race 2 - MESCHEVER

We've been burnt three times now by this filly but she now steps up to 1200m and draw's beautifully with barrier 2 while Damien Thornton re-takes the ride. Her three career runs have rated +2.9, +5.9 and +4.6, all of which would be good enough to run well here. She's had excuses too, racing 4-wide with no cover last start and just hasn't had everything go right yet, which gives us excuses to back her again... tongue tie goes on for the first time as well.


SASSY CHOICE looks one of the main dangers coming from that May Malt race where 1st and 4th have since won. Wasn't sold on DESARMER's jump outs on Feb 18 and Mar 11, thought they were only fair and was happy to risk.


We're hoping she goes forward from barrier 2 and gives them something to chase - the 1200m looks like it'll suit. This has to be the race she wins - we've got a Soft5 track and she should get every chance.


Pakenham, Race 1 - HARMSWORTH

This lightly raced 5yo gelding resumed over 1200m at Pakenham after 326 days off and ran a very gallant 2nd despite having to come across from barrier 12... sticks at 1200m here and draws a lot friendlier with barrier 6 and the smaller field suits. Blinkers go on and the first up run rated +3.2, which is the clear best last start rating of the race and well ahead of the second best at +11.2.

Of the peak ratings, only his first up run (+3.2) and O'LUCKY (+2.1) are below +8.0 and he already beat home O'LUCKY convincingly in that first up run. If he runs to his first up run, he is going to be very hard to beat here.


Looks as though there might be some rain over the next few days. His second career run was on a Heavy9 track over 1400m and he seemed to handle it well enough so a wet track over 1200m here second up should be okay.


We won't be taking $1.40-$1.50 though so will be leaving him and letting him win here without us.


Pakenham, Race 2 - GIRELLO

GIRELLO was a bit disappointing on debut losing by 4.95L over 1200m at Moonee Valley but there has been some really nice form from the race…

He was 6th of 6 runners while 5th was Quite The Lass who has since won a MDN by 1.25L, 4th was Cheloon who has since won a MDN by 2L, 3rd was Stromboli who has since won a MDN by 1.25L and 2nd was Matao Ma who is now spelling but in the same prep prior to that run he had finished 2nd to Treporti (since won a BM64), 2nd to Pascero (won BM64 next start before finishing 2nd in the GRP3 CS Hayes and 7th in GRP1 Australian Guineas) and 3rd to Arktika (won BM58 next start) and Hesket (won MDN and then BM64 in next two starts). Super form.


His debut run rated +2.0, which is the best last start rating of the race and the best peak rating of the race. A replicate of that debut run (rating wise) will have him hard to beat here.

Don't think a lot went right on debut either. He was slowly away, clearly the slowest of the field and was forced to chase throughout, coming very wide around the bend. The nose roll goes on for the first time and he draws lovely again with barrier 3, but just needs to tidy up his start. Jackie Beriman is probably going to have to ride a double as well as she's on the $1.40 Harmsworth in R1, but she's only striking at 8% for her L50 rides.


Backing him in to go well here second up and win.


Pakenham, Race 4 - MAWKEB

We were on her first up over 1200m, which wasn't suitable distance wise and she now steps up to 1600m second up after a little bit of a freshen up and a jump out on Mar 4 as a tick over, but it wasn't great. From that debut run, Jester (2nd) has since won a MDN and BM64, True Grit (3rd) has since finished 2nd and 1st in MDN's, Improvident (4th) has since won a MDN and Turf Flyer (5th) has since won a MDN. She started $5 that day and had to travel very wide throughout due to the poor barrier. The run rated +7.9, which is the second best last start rating of the race and the 6th best peak rating of the race...


At $26, she's over the odds and going to have a small spec. Not a stack of confidence, but she can run better than her price suggests.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 3.75 units.


Kyneton, Race 2

MESCHEVER ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $3.80 (Bet365) or $3.60 (TAB)


Pakenham, Race 2

GIRELLO ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $3.50 (TAB)


Pakenham, Race 4

MAWKEB ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $26.00 (TopSport)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +4.36 units at Recommend Price | +40.37 units at Betfair SP

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