BlackBook - Thursday, 17 February 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 17 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


WARRNAMBOOL - Race 5

#6 THE SISTINE TALES (5) - A Noblet

THE SISTINE TALES was quite disappointing in his first career preparation despite getting close a few times. Given more time, the 4yo gelding returned to finish 2nd in Heat 3 on Jan 19 in really slick time, the clear fastest time of the morning and he went to the ling alongside French Fields who was race fit and coming off a win with the 63-rated California Sunset in 3rd. It’s only his first jump out back, but Andrew Noblet will be hoping he can bring to the races what he’s shown at the jump outs.


You’d think on the back of these jump outs, THE SISTINE TALES just has to break his maiden first up this preparation (or at worst, second up). After finishing 2nd in a very slick Jan 19 jump out, he was back to the jump outs where he again finished 2nd, this time alongside talented Pegasi over the 800m in Heat 15 on Feb 3 where they clocked the clear fastest time of the morning. He didn’t have the blinkers on in either of these jump outs, so look for them if they’re on first up as they might spark some more improvement. He just needs to bring his track work to the races and he’ll be awfully hard to beat, but it’s easier said than done. Following regardless, he’s travelling in good order.


PAKENHAM - Race 2

OTHER

Following a very quiet Dec 30 jump out, #4 MIDNIGHT CHARM showed his speed as he led them up in Heat 6 on Jan 19 and was way too classy, even for the Freedman trained Litermont in 2nd place. We actually mentioned him back on Mar 10 when he was a 2yo and went to the line with Covert, who subsequently won first up. He didn’t make it to the races and was given a bit more time before a couple of disappointing July jump outs where he was then tipped out, probably not handling the wet weather. Would expect Jamie Kah to stick for the debut having ridden him here, so doubt we’ll get much of a price but he’s one to keep in mind as he’ll go close on debut.

On paper, #6 CHAMPINSKY certainly wasn’t disgraced on debut when 2nd to Bella Royale but a huge 3.75L gap to 3rd and the run rating +6.5. However, there has been no form come from this race with the 4yo-mare making switch over to Liam Howley. He looked good in his return jump out, leading (as he did on debut) from start to finish in Heat 3 on Feb 7 but did clock a slowish time for the day. He’s one for the watch list and would be well suited to a country maiden at a tight turning track where he can lead.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Warrnambool, Race 4 - HONOUR DE HERO

No official play here but can't ignore this mare's form without mentioning it - she was 4th last start at Warrnambool over 1300m with 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 8th and 10th all winning since while 7th ran 2nd (6th and 9th the only bad runs since). That last run rated +10.9, which is the best last start rating of this field. The worry is barrier 11 of 11 but the step up to 1400m suits. He's the one we have on top in this race and might be worth a play if you're looking at the race.


Warrnambool, Race 5 - THE SISTINE TALES

From his first jump out on Jan 19, the winner has since on a Hanging Rock BM58 so there is some form from the jump outs as well. Ignoring his run over 1500m and his latest run when 11.8L last as he clearly wasn't right (as shown by being subsequently spelled), he's had the three other runs over 1000m/1100m for ratings of +9.2, +9.2 and +3.4. The best last start rating of this race is from BITAEQUI at +9.0, with the rest of the field not rating any better than +11.0 - based on that, if he runs to either of his three runs at sprint trips, then he's clearly the one to beat.


Don't think this race has much depth at all and he looks to have come back super - both of his jump outs were super and he did so without the blinkers in either of them, which he wears here. John Allen is on board and with barrier 5, he can get a lovely sit in behind the speed of MY BOLD BOY and/or RICH BAY and come over the top late. Happy to be with him, this should be the race he breaks the maiden.


BELLINI MISS won a Warrnambool jump out but didn't think she looked much chop and with barrier 10 of 10 here, she's going to need a nice ride to win. The Lindsey Smith gallopers always go well at The Bool but happy to be against the 3yo filly here against the 4yo gelding in THE SISTINE TALES. Not many other chances outside those two.


For those that didn't get the early price of $2.70 on Wednesday afternoon, best to wait until closer to the jump and look to play anything around the ~$2.50 mark (or take that if you can now). Wouldn't surprise to see them come for L Smith at The Bool but we're happy to be against.


Pakenham, Race 2

As she usually does, Jamie Kah rides MIDNIGHT CHARM for Clayton Douglas as her only ride for the night and as a result, we have him short at $2.50. He's drawn barrier 9 of 9, but from the chute start it might not be so bad. He certainly looks to have enough talent to win a maiden and can go well here.


CHAMPINSKY could lead all the way here from barrier 3 in a race where there doesn't look to be a lot of speed. Probably would've preferred a country maiden, but don't be surprised if he goes well here. His debut run rated +6.5, which is the best last start rating and the fourth best peak rating, so he's certainly not out of it here.


At the prices of ~$2.50 and ~$4, wasn't too keen to get involved and was happy to leave this race with no bets. Had MIDNIGHT CHARM on top with CHAMPINSKY a very close second pick and the market agrees and certainly hasn't missed.


EARLY THOUGHTS - SATURDAY (Feb 19)

Flemington, Race 4 - CASTILLIAN

Having an early bet in the 2YO race as there looks to be some overs. Jump outs were absolutely super and not quite sure why he is such a big price - for those interested in the jockey bookings, it looked as though Ethan Brown rode him in his first JO but Mark Zahra was on board for his latest JO on Feb 4 with Ethan Brown riding the stablemate in the same heat, and now Ethan Brown riding here on debut.


He seems well over the odds and was happy to have a bet at the $20+ available - if possible, look to take advantage of the bonus back offers for some insurance such as on Bet365 etc.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 3.00 units for today.


Warrnambool, Race 5

THE SISTINE TALES ~ 3.00 units WIN @ $2.70 (TAB)


*extra early bet for Saturday*

Flemington, Race 4

CASTILLIAN ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $21.00 (Bet365 or Sportsbet)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +6.01 units at Recommend Price | +42.81 units at Betfair SP

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