BlackBook - Thursday, 16 March 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 16 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
PAKENHAM - Race 4
#1 GLOBE (5) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
GLOBE won a NZ trial back on Apr 19 by 6L in 59.5s for the 1000m in an impressive bit of work that ended up in him being purchased by Roll The Dice and sent over to Aus. He stepped out over 1000m in his first Aus jump out, finishing 2nd in Heat 13 on Feb 20 around some really nice horses with the first five across the line including Vultan, Ayrton, Illation and Flash Flood. He cruised to the line in this heat too, doing it all under his own steam where he was also really good past the line, going on with it in a super bit of work. Big watch for another jump out from this 4yo gelding.
Mick Price & Michael Kent jar have another nice NZ import on their hands in GLOBE. If the 6L NZ trial win on Apr 19 wasn’t enough, his two Aus jump outs certainly have been. He was 2nd on Feb 20 behind Vultan while finishing alongside Ayrton, Flash Flood and Illation in an impressive bit of work and he certainly backed that up by going one better in Heat 10 on Mar 6 where he recorded an impressive win ahead of Badiss and Illation with the 89-rated Blue Solider back in 4th place. He’s done it really easily throughout, kept under wraps in both jump outs yet showed some really nice talent in amongst horses who are well exposed, which is super form. Think he’ll be awfully hard to beat in any maiden he debuts in.
PAKENHAM - Race 5
OTHER
Super first jump out by #6 SAMUEL LANGHORNE, cruising to the line in Heat 12 on Mar 6 over the 1000m where he was never asked for an effort and did everything so smoothly. Interestingly he ran in NZ over 1600m in January earlier this year, so he’ll have a bit of residual fitness so he might not have another jump out before debuting here where we want to see him over 1400m.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Pakenham, Race 4 | ​ |
#1 GLOBE (5) - M Price & M Kent Jnr | High, Jordan Childs for Price/Kent isn’t a regular combo but they have had 50x rides for 10x wins (20% SR), so it’s clearly a good one and they team up here on a potentially really smart 4yo gelding whose drawn lovely with barrier 5 of 9 on a big Pakenham track following some super jump outs. Paris Affair looks the main danger but considering he got out over 2100m last prep in only his third start, he obviously will appreciate a lot further than this and may need the run, although he has jumped out well and the tongue tie is on. Mr Trafficanti the other one but has had his chance in easier maidens than this, but also has a race fitness edge. Thought this geldings JO’s were way too good and he looks smarter than maiden grade at the very least so we’ll be on him here - he should be awfully hard to beat. |
Pakenham, Race 5 | ​ |
#6 SAMUEL LANGHORNE (4) - M Kent | Low/Medium. This gelding was purchased following 2x NZ runs, the latest a 4th placing over 1600m in a solid effort. He had just the 1x Aus JO, which was slick albeit with some race fitness from NZ and returns to the races here over 1600m where he's drawn nicely with barrier 4. Looking at the ownership, he's only got the two owners in Mick Kent himself and Phil Cataldo, the NZ Bloodstock Agent that's responsible for the purchases of I'm Thunderstruck, Ayrton and many others, which has to be a good sign that they've retained ownership. Speransozo the clear one to beat but this gelding could run a nice race so having a ½ stake bet but just going to wait until closer to the jump to see if he gets out further in price. |
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Pakenham, Race 4 #7 TRANSCELTIC (3) - J Warren | BlackBook jump out comments: This was a lovely return from TRANSCELTIC in Heat 6 on Feb 15, travelling wide and on speed throughout before closing really nicely late to win over the 900m in the fastest time of the morning. It’s only his first jump out and he is a 3-start maiden with no career placings, but he’s a 3yo and that first prep may have done him a world of good so keep an eye on another jump out before the first up run. |
Last Updated: 7:37am AEDT on Thursday, 16th March 2023.
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STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB
