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BlackBook - Thursday, 16 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 16 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

OTHER

John Sadler has a nice filly on his hands in #7 EXPLOSIVE ROSIE. This daughter of Smart Missile caught the eye from a pair of jump outs as a 2yo, finishing 2nd on Jun 22 behind Cotel (won on debut) before winning on Jul 5 and then being put away for a spell. She returned in Heat 7 on Jan 31 as a 3yo where she showed early speed to push forward to lead under a hold, extending away over the concluding stages despite the jockey sitting very quietly throughout.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 1

#7 EXPLOSIVE ROSIE (4) - J Sadler

Low/Medium.

We've got a few runners in this race so don't usually like to play into these races but something about this filly that we really like. SISTERHOOD deserves favouritism and is clearly one of the ones to beat, likewise CANNON and to a lesser extent MY HARUCONI.


In saying that, think that this filly is really talented and the 1x JO into a debut at the home track with Luke Nolan on board having rode in the trial, his only ride for a non-Peter Moody runner...


Going to back her, think she's good value at $5+ but going to play her for a ½ stake (collect 2%).

There is bonus back offers on Sportsbet and BETR too.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Pakenham, Race 1

#1 CANNON (1) - M, W & J Hawkes

BlackBook jump out comments:

Following on from Arctic Fairy, CANNON was 2nd in her first jump out on Feb 3 where they clocked the fastest time of the morning. He was without the blinkers again (which he wore in his latest start), cruising out wide in Heat 12 on Feb 10 as Oli allowed him to balance up and close off, doing his best work past the line as he caught up with the breakaway leader in Sigourney quite comfortably. He resumed gelded last prep when 2nd to the talented Custodian before then finishing 4th at The Valley, a track that probably doesn’t suit him and he did finish around subsequent winners. He was horrible in his latest run with the blinkers on, but immediately tipped out after that so potentially an issue there. He’s now approaching his second prep as a gelding and on the back of these jump outs, he looks in nice order ahead of his return and he should be running well wherever he goes first up.

Pakenham, Race 1

#9 MY HARUCONI (2) - P Stokes

BlackBook jump out comments:

MY HARUCONI is a 5-start maiden with no career placings, but she’s now put together two jump out wins ahead of her resumption and looks to be in good order. She won an 800m jump out on Jan 24 where she defeated stablemate Runaway Belle with ease and it was the same combo in Heat 4 on Feb 7 over the 1000m with Runaway Belle struggling to keep up as this 3yo Nicconi flying sprinted away late. Her form puts a bit of a dampen on any expectations but she was a $145k filly and she is still only a 3yo that did run 4th first up last prep at a $51 SP when only 1.55L behind Nanagui and Miss Subtly so she can certainly give a sight first up this prep as well.

Pakenham, Race 1

#11 SISTERHOOD (7) - C Maher & D Eustace

BlackBook jump out comments:

SISTERHOOD put the writing on the wall with her first jump out on Jan 16 that saw her bolt in by a huge margin and she backed that up in Heat 12 on Feb 6 with another easy win. While it didn’t have the glamour of her first win, it was good to see her not just lead and be put under pressure late and respond to that pressure, extending away. This 3yo daughter of American Phaorah has some talent.

Pakenham, Race 6

#2 EL SOLEADO (2) - R Laing

BlackBook jump out comments:

EL SOLEADO was good in amongst some good company, finishing 4th in Heat 1 on Jan 30 behind the likes of Smokin’ Romans and Nugget over the 1000m. This was the returning 3yo gelding’s second jump out following another 4th placing on Jan 16, which was also in amongst good company, both jump outs without the blinkers he wore on debut so keep a close eye on that gear change first up as well. He was disappointing on debut but that was up the straight at Flemington behind Doull and he did start a $9.50 SP third fav, so there was some stable and market expectation there and if he heads to a maiden first up now as a 3yo, he can go well.


No bet - He went to the back first up at Moonee Valley due to the barrier and came home in the meetings 4th fastest L400m and fastest L200m to finish 4th.

The step up from 1200m to 1400m suits, as does the change of venue to a big track like Pakenham. He's also drawn barrier 2 here, so should settle a lot closer in the run. The favourite looks hard to beat though and Zousmic has the blinkers going on with solid form.

Last Updated: 8:25am AEDT on Thursday, 16th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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