BlackBook - Thursday, 16 December 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 16 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
KYNETON - Race 3
#11 WAR OF WISDOM (2) - J Thompson
Jody Thompson might have a smart one of her hands… WAR OF WISDOM resumed for a massive Nov 22 jump out win at Kilmore before backing that up with a super win in Heat 10 on Dec 8. The 3yo filly was away awkwardly but was able to muster speed very quickly to take a sit in behind the speed along the rail. She was absolutely travelling throughout and looked super, looking for a gap where she got one up along the rail late and exploded to the front to win. She didn’t beat much in terms of quality opposition, but the way she moved and won here was very impressive. Keen to follow her into her debut.
KYNETON - Race 4
#14 MY ARTEMIS (4) - B & JD Hayes
Could have a nice Written Tycoon filly here in MY ARTEMIS, who’s also well bred being a half-sister to Heatherly. She was untouched in a Oct 22 jump out at Flemington before a Nov 1 where she responded well late to some riding and urges from the jockey. Given a month, she headed to the official trials in Heat 11 on Dec 8 where she led from start to finish under no jockey pressure and looked super throughout. This is a filly we definitely want to follow into her debut.
OTHER
We had a nice opinion of #6 FIRST PLATOON before his debut, starting sub-$5 but only managing 7th of 11 and immediately put away following. Resuming now as a gelding, the 3yo looked slick again along the inside in Heat 3 on Nov 12 when never asked for an effort while those around him were pushed out. Expecting another jump out, but he’s one to monitor with him now being a gelding.
OUR THOUGHTS
Kyneton, Race 3 - WAR OF WISDOM
Love the booking of Daniel Stackhouse for WAR OF WISDOM and love that she's drawn barrier 2. This looks an ideal kick off point.
Of the raced, the best last start rating is +6.0 (NASDANA) with the second best being +8.6 (SOUTHERN FRONT). NASDANA is the current favourite but does have barrier 11 of 11 so it'll take a nice performance. NASDANA deserves to be near the top of the market. Her first jump out on Nov 26 behind subsequent winner Hokolesqua but the winner of the heat, Magic Sound, has since only ran 7th. She then went to Werribee on Dec 6, finishing 3rd when hard ridden late with the winner clocking 48.16s.
We were expecting (more hoping for) a bit of value in early markets with WISDOM OF WATER but she only opened $4. We're certainly glad LADY HILLARY got scratched, which allows us to play WAR OF WISDOM. Always a bit skeptical of the country trials but the official trial was really nice and going to back in the Stackhouse for Jody Thompson combination that is striking at 16.7% and 16.0% POT from 12 rides.
Small stable and only the one owner, so thinking she drifts from the current quote and playing the Betfair SP as a result for a medium confidence bet.
Kyneton, Race 4 - MY ARTEMIS (+ FIRST PLATOON)
Barrier 14 of 14 is far from ideal for FIRST PLATOON, although he resumes gelded with the blinkers coming off and he brings in the second best last start rating at +10.3 that is only slightly behind the best last start rating of +10.1 from BOHO MISS, which isn't anything special. His most recent two jump outs were only fair though which leaves us not completely sure he's too much of a winning chance here but it's not the best race.
AURUM MAN's jump outs were also only fair and there doesn't look to be too much else in the race that stand outs.
As a result, MY ARTEMIS looks very well placed on debut and as mentioned above, the ratings aren't anything special and she can run well here on debut. Draw's barrier 4, which is a lovely draw and think she will go very close. For the sake of 0.25u and the fact that we keep getting burnt by our 'Other' runners when backing our 'BlackBook' runners, we're going to have a small saver on FIRST PLATOON as well.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 4.00 units.
Kyneton, Race 3
WISDOM OF WATER ~ 2.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP
Kyneton, Race 4
MY ARTEMIS ~ 1.75 units WIN @ Betfair SP
FIRST PLATOON ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $8.50 (TopSport)
*We have a play for tomorrow at Canterbury that we're happy to take the early odds for - our write up will be in the BlackBook for tomorrow once we the odds for Moe and Yarra Valley are released Thursday afternoon.
Cantebury, Race 3
BOOMSONG ~ 2.00 units WIN $3.00 (TAB)
Overall: +6.76 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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