BlackBook - Thursday, 15 September 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 15 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.


GEELONG - Race 1

OTHER

Lindsay Park had success with Aidensfield and judging from her jump outs, they might have some success with her younger sister in #12 SWEETENED. A Zoustar filly that was purchased for $300k, she cruised to the line in a Apr 8 jump out but was put away and given more time. She returned on Aug 12, cruising to the line again where she moved really well but did only record a slow time for the morning. Her jump out again in Heat 10 on Aug 26 was much the same, with those behind her given a harder time in the process while she recorded a nice win. A filly to monitor on debut.


GEELONG - Race 3

#7 QUEEN OF THE GREEN (17) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

We mentioned QUEEN OF THE GREEN following last weeks Aug 22 jump out where the flashy mare closed super over the line. She was back at the jump outs, finishing 2nd to jump out star Mutinous in Heat 5 on Aug 29 ahead of another speedy galloper in Dancelittlesister. She hasnt been away great in both her jump outs, which might be a slight worry when she heads to the races, but she was able to quickly muster speed to sit outside the leader and cruise to the line under minimal riding. As mentioned last week, Seamus Mills Bloodstock paid $1.5M for her and there is some talent in the family with her younger half-sister Bezique winning on debut before running 2nd in the Listed Bill Carter Stakes at Eagle Farm in June, a race their older half-sister Eawase won in 2018. A 4yo mare with talent, on the back of these jump outs she certainly has a maiden win in her and likely better races down the track.


GEELONG - Race 10

OTHER

#14 WRITTEN SUN absolutely flew late in Heat 6 on Aug 24, finishing 4th but he made up a ridiculous amount of ground late and was well in front past the line. He showed a tremendous turn of foot here, which he wasn’t able to show in his first jump out on Aug 10 while under a strong hold. A 4yo gelding that has come over to Symon Wilde having been with Gai Waterhouse, he’s certainly got some country VIC wins in him.

 
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Follow the steps below:

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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Geelong, Race 1

#12 SWEETENED (10) - B & JD Hayes

Low/Medium.

D Oliver was obviously keen to stick with filly following her latest jump out and it's not hard to see why. The issue is she's drawn terribly out wide (barrier 10 of 11) and the favourite in MISS SUBTLY looks very hard to beat now fourth up after 3x 2nd's with some nice form behind the likes of Nanagui (1st) and Clarity (5th) who raced on Saturday.

Think she gets out in price closer to the jump and we can then have a small play, but ½ staking as not as much confidence.

Geelong, Race 3

#7 QUEEN OF THE GREEN (12) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

High.

She is drawn horribly, but the jump outs were very good (+ Mutinous since ran 3rd in a BM70) and if she overcomes that, she'll be hard to beat.

We're not surprised to see some support come for FINGOLFIN following his Aug 12 & Aug 26 jump outs - he looks the main danger. Think MAWKEB is talented but needs further than the 1200m here.

Obviously the Heavy track is a query for everyone but she handled it fine in the JO's and don't think Price/Kent would be debuting a $1.5M mare on a Heavy track if she was going to fail. Have QUEEN OF THE GREEN on top and quite happy to be with her here.


UPDATE: Jamie Kah is replaced by B MacDougall, which is a good replacement but J Kah was a good push...

Geelong, Race 10

#14 WRITTEN SUN (1) - S Wilde

Medium.

Considering he led in both his career starts as an ex-Waterhouse horse and he has barrier 1 here, he can hold a prominent spot and give a sight. The worry is that the 1125m might be short of his best but John Allen makes his way to Geelong at 5pm for only the one ride and he still looks a great E/W bet.

Last Updated: 10:40am on Thursday, 15th September 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

685x runners | 207x winners (30%) & 217x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.22 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

983x runners | 228x winners (23%) & 271x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.44 WIN $3.06 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB