BlackBook - Thursday, 15 December 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 15 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Kyneton, Race 3
#11 STRUYA (9) - P Keane
STRUYA could be one that is improved first up in his second preparation. He was 2nd in an 800m jump out Nov 21 on before then running 3rd over 1000m on Dec 5. He gets the blinkers on from those jump outs, will be sure to improve him even more. The 1450m first up is a bit of a query, but happy to find out if he goes well enough at $61+.
It's only a "Low" confidence play, but at that price, only have to have a tiny amount on to be collecting our 4%.
Kyneton, Race 6
#13 DESARMER (7) - S Richards
We would’ve preferred a BM58, but comes back to the races here second up following a nice JO on Dec 2. He was horrible first up over 1143m, steps up to 1450m here, which is much more suitable and can run a cheeky race. Have to have something on at $51/$61.
Similar to above, it's only a "Low" confidence play but at that price, we only have to have a tiny amount on to be collecting our 4%.
Last Updated: 8:10am on Thursday, 15th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 702x runners | 214x winners (30%) & 225x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.11 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1094x runners | 266x winners (24%) & 298x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $11.92 WIN $2.98 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 41x runners | 24x wins (59%) & 11x placings (85%)
Medium Confidence: 78x runners | 32x wins (41%) & 20x placings (67%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 73x runners | 15x wins (21%) & 23x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 14x runners | 4x wins (29%) & 3x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):