BlackBook - Thursday, 14 April 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 14 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
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ALBURY - Race 7
#4 MOJO MUSIC was disappointing first up at Albury despite being well backed and starting $3.40, he could only manage 6th. He returned for a tick over jump out, taking out Heat 6 on Apr 5 (red) over the 900m in the fastest time of the morning (50.13s vs day’s average of 51.50s) where he was forced to go to clear last and round them up down the middle of the track, nabbing the 72-rated Azaly on the line. Needs to improve second up as he’s proving costly to punters.
PAKENHAM - Race 4
Thought the 3yo colt #6 ILLATION (pink) didn’t look out of place in Heat 14 on Apr 4 when finishing 2nd to Ayrton. This was his second jump out, both of them over the 1200m after finishing 4th on Mar 7. He’s by So You Think out of the mare Pontiana, which makes him a half-brother to the $1.05m colt Dragon Leap who was 4th in the Group 1 NZ Derby after winning multiple Group 2’s prior.
PAKENHAM - Race 5
#1 VISINARI absolutely bolts in Heat 10 on Mar 15 over the 1000m, defeating Bonvicini (recently 4.8L off a GRP3) and the rest of the field with ease. The 5yo gelding bounced out of the gates, straight to the front and then it was all over. This is his second Aus campaign and is now with Mick Price & Michael Kent, so one to monitor.
*has since won a Mar 28 jump out over 1200m by a huge margin as well*
The 5yo mare #5 CAPELLA has bolted in Heat 12 on Mar 25, clocking 48.83s in comparison to the days average of 49.04s.
OUR THOUGHTS (BETS)
Pakenham, Race 4 - ILLATION
This looks a perfect kick off point for this 3yo colt, with Mark Zahra making the trip to Pakenham for only the one ride. His recent jump out when going to the line alongside Ayrton was super and he looks quite talented.
From his first jump out on Mar 7 when he was 4th, Celestial Fury (1st) ran 2nd in a CL1 first up, Tahlequah (2nd) ran 2nd and then 1st in MDN's and Duke Of Bedford (3rd) won a MDN first up. That second jump out on Apr 4 was obviously behind a very talented horse in Ayrton.
EGYPTIAN ICON has the form on the board and looks the only real danger. His debut run rated +0.4, which is the best last start rating and the best peak rating of this race and some form has come from the race with the winner in Treporti winning again since while Matao Ma (2nd) ran 2nd, 3rd and 2nd in MDN's, No Baby No (3rd) ran 2nd and then 1st in MDN's and the only other horse to run from behind him was Cable De Vega (6th) who ran 4th, 3rd, 2nd and then 1st in MDN's. He's first up and his trials left a fair bit to be desired so certainly need to see him have the run first.
With ILLATION, think he should be hard to beat here with barrier 1 and Mark Zahra on board with those jump outs under his belt. Expect him to take a sit behind the speed and the 2x 1200m jump outs will have him ready to go first up. for the 1400m on debut.
He got into as low as ~$1.50 on Wednesday afternoon, but has got out a bit now to $1.70 and he might get out a bit further closer to the jump. Thought $1.80+ would be good to take so we'll play at the SP.
OUR THOUGHTS (NO BETS)
Pakenham, Race 5 - VISINARI
He's only had the 2x Australian runs, those coming last year when he was with Sam Kavanagh, running 4th over 1200m first up in a BM81 before a disappointing run over 1300m in a BM78 at Rosehill. He was given a freshen up while changing stables to Mick Price where he then won a 1200m Cranbourne jump out by a big margin but was tipped out.
His 2x jump outs this preparation have been super, winning over 1000m and 1200m with ease and he looks ready for a big first up run. Will note that he's had 2x trials and 3x jump outs since coming to Australia in Sep 2021, and he's won all 5x of them, so he seems to be a real track work star at this stage, which is slightly concerning.
In saying that, his 2x Australian runs rated +5.9 and -1.4, both of which would be very competitive in this race and if he can replicate any of his jump outs here with the blinkers going off, he's going to be hard to beat. Matt Chadwick takes 4kg off his back to bring him down to 59kg, which has him very well weighted in a BM64. He's the one to beat.
No official play for us as there isn't much value in the ~$2.25 when he hasn't exactly 'done it' on race day yet so was happy to watch and let him win without us. In saying that, he's the top pick and should be winning this based on his jump outs.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.
Total outlay is 2.50 units.
Pakenham, Race 4
ILLATION ~ 2.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP (bet here)
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +7.76 units at Recommend Price | +41.28 units at Betfair SP
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