Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 13 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
KEMBLA GRANGE - Race 4
Two very slick trials now from #10 LIGHT PRESS. The 3yo filly looked too good for them in her return trial on Sep 13 over 742m where she won comfortably under a hold ahead of King Of Naples, a winner first up ahead of a smart filly that we were on in Black Iris. The daughter of Press Statement then returned to the trials in Trial 15 on Sep 26, again over the shorter distance of 737m, but it was just as impressive bit work. She jumped cleanly but wasn’t ridden with urgency in the early stages where she then wanted to get on with it, overracing as a result until she was allowed to stride out in the straight where she was again too good. Having had the two runs as a 2yo earlier in the year, she looks to have returned in lovely order ahead of her return to the races as a 3yo.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Ballarat, Race 1
#7 THE UNICORN (3) - G Waterhouse & A Bott
Kembla Grange, Race 4
#10 LIGHT PRESS (10) - R Quinton
Expected her to be scratched with barrier 18 of 20 but she comes into barrier 10 after scratchings, which isn't horrible and suspect they just need to run her. She handled the Heavy tracks well enough in her debut prep so she shouldn't be a major issue here. It's a good enough race though and she looks a nice E/W chance - happy to have a bet at the price - playing ½ now and ½ on SP as they likely come for those at the top of the market.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Kembla Grange, Race 3
#14 TRADITION (12) - J Cummings
Last Updated: 8:27am on Thursday, 12th October 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
689x runners | 210x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.21 WIN $2.30 PLC
1021x runners | 241x winners (24%) & 279x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.31 WIN $3.04 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
THE RACE CLUB
The Jump Outs x The Race Club
Just a quick FYI, we’re now going to be posting some tips on The Race Club through their app/website. It’s a good opportunity for us to work with Adam and the team to get our name out there a little more with the potential for more opportunities down the track to venture into, so we’re looking forward to it.
What we post on The Race Club will be sent to everyone first, so no one will be at a disadvantage.
I’m sure the main question will be, what’s difference between The Race Club and this service?
We will only be posting select tips on The Race Club, which will pretty much be the runners that are ‘High’ confidence only.
The runners that are ‘Medium’ confidence will very rarely (!) be posted on The Race Club and the runners that are ‘Low’ and ‘Low/Medium’ won’t be posted on The Race Club.
So for an average week, there will be ~15 BlackBook runners that we have, which everyone here will get but only 3-4 will be on The Race Club, so it’s a big difference. We’re just dipping our toe in the water, so to speak.
If you’re already signed up to The Race Club or want to sign up, please let us know.
Any questions or issues, just message/email us. Thanks all and looking forward to more winners!