BlackBook - Thursday, 13 January 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 13 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
ARARAT - Race 3
#5 LET’S SEA was green, but his work over the concluding stages in Heat 10 on Dec 21 after being urged along was impressive. He was out the back, but once he got through he really exploded and ate up the margin that the leader had on him to get 2L or so. He was quiet in his Nov 22 jump out over 900m, stepping up to 1000m in this heat having come over from NZ with his latest run a 2nd over 1600m. He’ll probably get over more than a mile in Aus, but think he’s worth keeping in mind first up.
ARARAT - Race 4
A maiden win can’t be far away for #10 TRANQUIL BAY. Her record is slightly worrying, but she’s had excuses. She ran 3rd on debut before pulling up lame and being spelled. In her second prep she ran a 0.2L 2nd and a 0.8L 4th before striking a Heavy9 and Heavy10 track - she started less than $3 in 4 of her 6 career runs. Her return jump out on Nov 26 was quiet but good, while her 2nd in Heat 13 on Dec 6 was similar, quiet but well held and good. Doubt she’s a big price first up, but we can follow regardless.
PAKENHAM - Race 2
You won’t see too many easier jump out wins than #4 BEAU NIGHT’s in Heat 8 on Jan 4 over the 1000m. He’s had a few jump outs now, but was gelded heading into this prep and after a quiet Dec 20 jump out when 8th, the 3yo looked to be classes above this lot although, the time was slow-ish.
PAKENHAM - Race 3
Big win by #11 WRITE THE SCORE in Heat 10 on Dec 29 over the 1000m, backing up her Dec 20 win over 800m to suggest she’s come back in good order having finally broken the maiden last preparation at start #9. She’s only 58-rated, so a BM58 first up would be more than suitable.
Ararat, Race 4 - TRANQUIL BAY
She looks very well placed to win here second up - jump outs were good prior to resuming but she ran into a race fit Joseylin who has since ran 2nd in a CL1 at Sandown while 4th has since won. The run rated +4.2, which is the best last start rating as well as the best peak rating in the race. If the entire field ran to their last start rating and she ran to her worst career rating, then she wins this so she's very well placed. Winkers go back on and she's a lot better placed with barrier 4 and up to 1100m.
TRIBUTO actually jumped out behind TRANQUIL BAY on Dec 6 (white silks) and travelled okay. Jump outs on Dec 17 and Dec 31 (slow time) since have been good and he looks the primary danger.
Happy to side with the race fitness and ratings of TRANQUIL BAY and give her one more chance. She should be winning this.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
In addition, we're putting more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Ararat, Race 4
TRANQUIL BAY ~ 1.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +27.51 units at Recommend Price | +60.69 units at Betfair SP
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