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BlackBook - Thursday, 13 April 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 13 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 7

OTHER

This was a very good trial from the grey #3 CRU CLASSE, the 5yo mare sitting last sitting last throughout Heat 7 on Apr 5 but coming to the middle of the track in the straight as she closed superbly to finish a close 2nd to Kings Consort over the 1190m. She’ll obviously get out over a bit of distance but doubt you’ll see many trial better than this against a Group performed galloper in Kings Consort so she’s a must follow first up. Super.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Kilmore, Race 2

#7 MISS MILHOUS (1) - A Alexander

Medium.

She was well backed on debut but no match for Hooah Havana (who won again next start). She then stepped up to 1400m where she sat outside the eventual winner in El Soleado as they lead throughout but she tired late and dropped back to 4th. She steps back now from 1400m to 1212m, which more than suits and she should be at peak fitness now third up.


Expecting her to go forward from barrier 1, lead and be hard to hold out. The wet track is an obvious query but she should be hard to beat here regardless so we're happy to bet.

Looking to take $2.20-$2.50 for her now post scratchings.

Pakenham, Race 7

#3 CRU CLASSE (6) - P Payne

Low/Medium.

Thought her trial was one of the better trials you'll see, especially over 1190m from a stayer resuming.

This is a very suitable race first up for her too as it lacks some depth, but the issue is she likely gets back and will be looking to close over the top, which isn't a high percentage play.


We know our boy Potato Pete will be going forward and leading from barrier 2 and while it doesn't feel right tipping against our own horse (as we want him to win), we feel as though CRU CLASSE is the one to beat and we have to be with her from the trials for the BlackBook.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Kilmore, Race 2

#3 EXILE (8) - J Cummings

BlackBook jump out comments:

EXILE technically finished last in her first jump out on Feb 24 but it was only a field of 4 and she was given a very easy time, just cruising and dropping back late. She was given more of a hit out in Heat 13 on Mar 24 where the leaders got going in the early stages and she was given a push to keep up, closing very nicely late once she got into her work to get through the middle and win over the concluding stages. She couldn’t get that maiden out of the way in her first prep but looks to be in good order so worth monitoring first up.

Last Updated: 7:39am AEDT on Thursday, 13th April 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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