BlackBook - Thursday, 12 January 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 12 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

PAKENHAM - Race 1

OTHER

#5 THE INSTRUCTOR can’t do much more ahead of his debut. He was a nice winner of a 740m Randwick trial back on Dec 13 where he sat midfield but wide throughout before checking off heels and closed superbly over the top to win when put under a bit of pressure. He came down to VIC, bolting in Heat 6 on Dec 30 in the second fastest time of the morning where Craig Williams took him straight to the front and that was it, no one got near him. A $230k Magic Millions purchase for First Light Racing, he looks a nice moving Russian Revolution colt.

PAKENHAM - Race 4

OTHER

#10 MI SCUSI went to the line with Tolpuddle in Heat 18 on Jan 4, who was a nice maiden winner for us at $1.85 SP a few weeks ago. They went toe to toe throughout this heat and while Mi Scusi was asked to pick up around the 200m mark, they still went to the line together and he was closing off better. He had a quiet Dec 19 jump out when 2nd so on the back of this 1000m jump out, he looks like a nice mover and should be running well on debut. We want to follow him.

Considering the first two across the line in Heat 6 on Jan 3 were Western Empire and Super Storm, the unraced #11 ORTEGA has done a super job to finish a very close 3rd despite having to also come from the back of the field after travelling wide throughout and doing so under minimal jockey pressure in a super bit of work. He was no match for a very talented Citizenship in a Dec 19 jump out but he did close well into 2nd and looks a nice moving son of Rich Enuff who can go well on debut.

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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners	Confidence - Comments
Pakenham, Race 1
#5 THE INSTRUCTOR (6) - G Waterhouse & A Bott	Medium. Loved both of his jump outs and this looks a lovely maiden to kick off his campaign. He is very speedy but has been versatile in his trials/JO's, so he's got plenty of options from barrier 6 but do expect him to be up there on speed. He's the clear horse to beat and have to be with him here. We can wait to see if we get a better price late but think ~$2.50 is about right.
Pakenham, Race 4	Backing ORTEGA and MI SCUSI for even returns. Potential saver on EIGHT DECADES (below) late.
#10 MI SCUSI (8) - G Eurell	Low/Medium. He looks like one that might get out over a little further judging from his latest 1000m JO, as he had to pick back up but when he did, he closed super. Expect him to be sitting just off the pace from barrier 10 and being asked by Oli to pick them up late where he'll be having one of the last cracks at them. He's a definite winning chance here and want to be with him.
#11 ORTEGA (2) - M Kent	Medium. His latest JO against really good company was super and Mark Zahra being on board here is a huge push. Loved the way he closed off and expect him to be in the finish here as well. It's a nice maiden, but we want to be with this gelding and he's our top selection for the race.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Pakenham, Race 4 #7 GO TO HOLLYWOOD (1) - J Allen	BlackBook jump out comments: Solid win by John Allen’s gelding, GO TO HOLLYWOOD, in Heat 6 on Dec 27. The 3yo son of Alpine Eagle was away a touch slow and settled at the rear of the field, but was able to huge the rail around the bend and get a gap up the inside where he then took the gap and showed a nice turn of foot when put under pressure late, opening up a good margin for a pretty soft win in the end. His starts are a worry as he did the same in a previous Dec 13 jump out where he finish 2nd, but wasn’t put under pressure there and just cruised to the line. Following him into his debut, he looks to move and close well. No bet - he's been slow in both his JO's so from barrier 1, he'll likely spot them a start and need some luck, which makes him a hard bet to have in a race that has no shortage of winning chances.
Pakenham, Race 4 #4 EIGHT DECADES (12) - M Price & M Kent Jnr	BlackBook jump out comments: EIGHT DECADES was solid in a Nov 28 jump out but as he stepped out to 1000m he really turned it on, bolting in Heat 12 on Dec 5. He led in this jump out but clearly did his best work late, opening up a huge gap without much of an effort at all. The 3yo son of Smart Missile was a $35k buy from the Magic Millions and looks a nice mover. Have to keep him in mind on debut but he may be better over 1400m-1600m. No bet - as we mentioned in our review, we'd prefer him over 1400m+ so in a 1200m MDN that has some talent, we're looking elsewhere. In saying that, him winning wouldn't shock as he has some talent too.

Pakenham, Race 4

#7 GO TO HOLLYWOOD (1) - J Allen

BlackBook jump out comments:

Solid win by John Allen’s gelding, GO TO HOLLYWOOD, in Heat 6 on Dec 27. The 3yo son of Alpine Eagle was away a touch slow and settled at the rear of the field, but was able to huge the rail around the bend and get a gap up the inside where he then took the gap and showed a nice turn of foot when put under pressure late, opening up a good margin for a pretty soft win in the end. His starts are a worry as he did the same in a previous Dec 13 jump out where he finish 2nd, but wasn’t put under pressure there and just cruised to the line. Following him into his debut, he looks to move and close well.

No bet - he's been slow in both his JO's so from barrier 1, he'll likely spot them a start and need some luck, which makes him a hard bet to have in a race that has no shortage of winning chances.

Pakenham, Race 4

#4 EIGHT DECADES (12) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

BlackBook jump out comments:

EIGHT DECADES was solid in a Nov 28 jump out but as he stepped out to 1000m he really turned it on, bolting in Heat 12 on Dec 5. He led in this jump out but clearly did his best work late, opening up a huge gap without much of an effort at all. The 3yo son of Smart Missile was a $35k buy from the Magic Millions and looks a nice mover. Have to keep him in mind on debut but he may be better over 1400m-1600m.

No bet - as we mentioned in our review, we'd prefer him over 1400m+ so in a 1200m MDN that has some talent, we're looking elsewhere. In saying that, him winning wouldn't shock as he has some talent too.

Last Updated: 7:24am (QLD) on Thursday, 12th January 2023.

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 708x runners | 218x winners (31%) & 227x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.06 WIN $2.28 PLC

'Other' Runners: 1131x runners | 278x winners (25%) & 312x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.10 WIN $2.99 PLC

Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 47x runners | 28x wins (60%) & 13x placings (87%)

Medium Confidence: 94x runners | 39x wins (41%) & 28x placings (71%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 90x runners | 20x wins (22%) & 27x placings (52%)

Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)

STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.

Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".

This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.

We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart

.pdf

Download PDF • 920KB