BlackBook - Thursday, 11 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 11 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


PAKENHAM - Race 2

OTHER

We were following #7 SKIPPING GIRL into her debut after some nice jump outs and she should’ve won. She had no luck, held up and only went down by 1.2L at a very nice $14 with the run rating +9.2 on PuntingForm. Back to the jump outs in between runs, she was way too classy for them in Heat 7 on Oct 25 getting up along the inside to win, albeit in slow time for the day. She’ll pop up in a maiden second up and would think she’d be hard to beat, hopefully opening up at a nice price. She’s better than maiden grade.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Pakenham, Race 2 - SKIPPING GIRL

We were very keen on SKIPPING GIRL last start, where she had every chance but could only manage 3rd. Josh Richards takes the ride and takes 1.5kg off (bringing her in at 55kg) with the blinkers going on here. She will be at peak fitness now third up - draw's barrier 1 but the long Pakenham straight should give her plenty of time to get out.


Ratings wise, she brings in the third best last start and third best peak benchmark rating behind LIBERTY FIRE and VALLEY OF QUEENS. VALLEY OF QUEENS ran the meetings fastest L600m and L200m and brings in the second best last start benchmark rating. LIBERTY FIRE has jumped out okay, but almost all Busuttin & Young horses do. Expect one of these three to win.


Operating on a Heavy8 with a small field of 6 now, which doesn't leave us with much value at all. Have SKIPPING GIRL on top from VALLEY OF QUEENS and LIBERTY FIRE, but there just isn't any value in the $2.30-$2.40 available this morning to play.


Late race (3:30pm) due to the late start for a Twilight type of meeting. We'll let her go around with no bets on - she can win, there is just no value in the price and VALLEY OF QUEENS and LIBERTY FIRE are certainly not without a chance.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

No bets. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall: +7.13 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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