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BlackBook - Thursday, 11 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 11 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 2

OTHER

CORTES is back and in good order following his spell and gelding, winning Heat 9 on Apr 24 quite comfortably as the jockey asked him to extend late, in which he did. We mentioned him following his Apr 11 jump out where he just cruised to the line so it’s certainly good to see him given a bit more of a hit out here and that will really bring him on for his first up run. A $250k purchase, connections will be certainly hoping he can live to that price tag and on the back of these, he certainly has a maiden win him early this prep.


SNICK is another to follow from Heat 6 on May 2. The resuming 3yo filly was ridden with no urgency upon jumping, settling at the rear of the field but clearly doing his best work late despite being under minimal pressure, closing superbly to finish 3rd and doing his best work past the line. She closed well in her previous Apr 11 jump out as well and looks to have returned in nice order despite her 5-starts for 1-placing career record. She can run well first up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Kilmore, Race 3

#2 BEAUTIFUL VIEW (1) - L Oliver

Low/Medium.

If you were on him last start, then don't watch the replay - he sat behind the leader but it was an absolute nightmare run, never getting out at any stage and finished 8th of 9 as a result. He was in the market that day but it was just a horror race and a complete forgive.

Two back he was good behind Headline Story.


Think he'll appreciate the step up to 1450m and that last run was just a gallop, so he'll be peaking now fourth up. Here's hoping he doesn't get trapped from barrier 1 again ...


He's worth a bet at $3+, but we'll be ½ staking and backing to collect 2%/2u.

Pakenham, Race 2

#2 CORTES (11) - R Griffiths & M de Kock

Medium.

His form behind Holly Lolly (and Private Jumbo) on debut and more recently Shuffle Dancer at Sandown are more than good enough for a maiden + add in him being gelded with some slick jump outs, he should be hard to beat here and think he deserves to be favourite.


Not sold on Grandma's Plate here - debut run was good but was beaten by an 10-start maiden (at the time) and the 3rd horse is a 6-start maiden and that was their first placings - thought the form was ordinary.


We want to be with him and betting here, he's the one to beat and like the $4+ available.

#12 SNICK (13) - J Sadler

Low.

Thought her JO's were super and although drawn wide here, the chute start and a big Pakenham track suit so think she can be running on late at a big price.


Can't let her go around without being on her and at $26, we can back her along with Cortes.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Pakenham, Race 1

#9 MIRAVAL ROSE (2) - G Begg

BlackBook jump out comments:

Visually, you couldn’t ask for much more from MIRAVAL ROSE as she kicked away for an effortless victory in Heat 14 on Apr 24 having led throughout but doing it very easily under minimal pressure. She’s by Grunt and a half-sister to Breaking Ground, who has been kind to us in the past so here’s hoping this younger 2yo filly can do similar for us. She’s one to monitor.

Last Updated: 7:52am AEDT on Thursday, 11th May 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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