Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 11 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
SALE - Race 4
#12 BEWS (2) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr looked to have another talented colt on their hands, their 2yo I Am Invincible colt in BEWS taking out Heat 16 on Jul 11 in impressive fashion. He was 6th in an official Jul 4 trial where he was always out the back, taking improvement into todays heat where he sat midfield and showed a lovely turn of foot late to get over the top of a pushed out Berry Bubbly and doing so stylishly. A $400k purchase from the 2021 MM Gold Coast Yearling Sale, he looks a colt with some talent.
A third jump out for BEWS now, taking out Heat 7 on Aug 1 over 800m where the 3yo colt sat off the leader in the stakes placed Wee Nessy before extending away late over the concluding stages with ease. It’ll be hard to match up and measure the times as there aren’t many jump outs out the back at Cranbourne, but he's listed as clocking 49.84s being the second fastest time of the morning behind Coolangatta. We mentioned him after his Jul 11 jump out win ahead of Berry Bubbly, who then ran 5th on Saturday at Moonee Valley in a HCP race, having previously finished 6th in an official trial on Jul 4but he was always out the back. He’s shown lovely improvement between his trials and jump outs, and as a $400k I Am Invincible colt from the 2021 MM Gold Coast Yearling Sale, he looks a colt with a bit of talent.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Sale, Race 4
#12 BEWS (2) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
Jamie Kah on board (as her only ride for the meeting) with barrier 2 - we'll keep it simple, he wins this.
Have a listen to Michael Kent on RSN (Spotify), he says that his colt is in the same sentence as What You Need and Grand Impact - so suspect he's heading towards a Coolmore Stud Stakes as well ($81 on Sportsbet).
He's $1.40 this morning post scratchings, so we're better off waiting and playing late (closer to the jump) to try steal a better price.
The below aren't #BlackBook runners or recommended bets (unless stated), but are those we have notes on and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing (i.e. quaddie's etc).
Sale, Race 5
#8 HYPOTHETICAL (8) - A & S Freedman
Scratched at the gates the other week where she was a $2 favourite. She's a talented mare and has nice form from her last start win at Sandown - expect her to push forward here and go well.
Newcastle, Race 2
#1 BAYEZID (12) - J Cummings
He should've (and would've) bolted in a Apr 1 trial if he was allowed to run at any stage - he was under a hard hold throughout but looked to move well.
He's had the two more recent trials, the first on Jul 6 when he closed super into 3rd and the latest on Jul 22 where he recorded a nice win. Looks like he needs to work on his racing manners a bit, but he looks talented at the same time and J-Mac takes the ride.
Last Updated: 8:14am on Thursday, 11th August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
670x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.30 PLC
938x runners | 211x winners (22%) & 259x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.72 WIN $3.10 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):