BlackBook - Thursday, 10 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 10 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


KILMORE - Race 3

OTHER

#12 VITTORINA is going to be a very interesting runner ahead of her return to the races. The 5yo mare is a 19-start maiden, but following jump out wins on Feb 11 and a big win in Heat 3 on Feb 25, she looks to be one to spec at a big price first up. The ease in which she’s won these as well has been impressive, never let off the bridal or pushed out so with 2x 1000m bits of work under her belt, we’re monitoring her very closely.


KILMORE - Race 4

OTHER

INTO THE FURY (1st), #3 KUROLATION (2nd) and MISS MATADOR (3rd) from Heat 12 on Feb 14 were all having their first jump out this preparation and all three looked to move well, but they did clock the third slowest time of the morning. Regardless, monitoring all three of these runners into another jump out to get a real gauge on how they’re travelling.


KILMORE - Race 6

OTHER

#7 MY DIVAS won Heat 11 on Feb 25 nicely enough over the 1000m to be prominent in a BM58 first up.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

#5 INTELLO STAR (3) - D O'Brien

INTELLO STAR has previously featured in our reviews and his jump out here was slick again. He had a jump out back on Nov 19 where he finished behind Jungle Jim (since 1st, 1st, 5th and 1st) and Swerving (won on debut) before a jump out over 1100m on Dec 6 where he given a push but finished only slightly behind Odeon and Nordic (won a BM70 first up). He’s been given more time, returning in Heat 13 on Feb 25 for a win ahead of Gerald (previous winner) where he looked to move really slickly and it was hard to miss that big baldy face. He was taken to the back and stayed there in a Feb 14 jump out, so it was hard to get a gauge on him at all but despite the slow time here, just loved the way he moves and pretty keen to follow him.


PAKENHAM - Race 2

OTHER

Putting #10 TRINITY BEACH on the watch list following a quiet return jump out in Heat 13 on Feb 25. She moved well and it’s not hard to see why she finished 3rd behind Extreme Warrior on debut with some super form from the race including 2nd, 4th and 5th all being winners since. One to watch.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Kilmore, Race 3 - VITTORINA

VITTORINA is a 19-start maiden who failed to finish within 6L of the winner in 3 starts last preparation with the lowest SP being $21. Her last start rated +9.4, which is the second best last start rating of the race behind ELEGANT LAD at +5.9. She has won two jump outs ahead of her return here and looks to be in good order - happy to have a small spec at a nice price.


We were on CHART BUSTER first up where he jumped $1.60 but he was very (very) disappointing. He had every chance and just wasn’t good enough despite the market expectation. Certainly not taking ~$1.90 here now - he can win without us.


Pakenham, Race 1 - INTELLO STAR

Nice little maiden here. FOTURI has placed in all five career runs, finishing 2nd to some nice horses such as Mornington Glory and it's no surprise that he brings in the best last start rating (+0.6) and best peak rating (-7.0) with other ratings around the ~+6.0 mark, all of which of would be good enough to win this. He looks the one to beat but does have barrier 8 of 8. MR TRAFFICANTI jumped out well on Feb 25 (white) and was good past the line - MZ on board and looks a winning chance. They look the main two.


Craig Williams has the one ride at Bendigo before making his way to Pakenham for only the two rides, one of them on this talented 3yo colt in INTELLO STAR. The query will be on that he's a southern hemisphere's 3yo that's foaled in April 2019 as opposed to our 3yo's who are foaled in late 2018 - for example, FOTURI is a 4yo foaled in October 2017, so he is 18 months older than INTELLO STAR and there is only 0.5kg difference. He's jumped out well though on numerous occasions and with barrier 3 here, he can be prominent in the run and give a sight.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 1.25 units.


Kilmore, Race 3

VITTORINA ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $21.00 (TopSport) or $19.00 (TAB and Bet365)


Pakenham, Race 1

INTELLO STAR ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $6.00 (TopSport)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -8.44 units at Recommend Price | +28.28 units at Betfair SP

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