Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 1 September 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
SALE - Race 5
Unseen since March 2021, the undefeated #2 KARAKA LAD is now with Lindsay Park (being owned solely by Lindsay Park Bloodstock) and looked super as he cruised to win Heat 12 on Aug 8. The now 5yo Iffraaj gelding won his only two Australian starts very impressively by 1.8L and 2.3L before heading off to Hong Kong. He was with John Size, but only managed the 1x start when 13th of 14th. Now back in Australia, suspect Lindsay Park are gearing him up for a big spring campaign.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Sale, Race 5
#2 KARAKA LAD (3) - B & JD Hayes
His first JO at Flemington was super in a good field - his latest on Aug 22 at Wangaratta was also slick but the field was ordinary. He handled the wet that day and he's already won a Soft5 and Heavy10 in QLD before going to Hong Kong - so the Soft track here will be no worries. If he's come back as good as he left, which it looks like he has at the JO's, then he's better than BM64 level and should be hard to beat here.
Backing him to find out, but ½ staking.
Last Updated: 8:14am on Thursday, 1st September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
680x runners | 204x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.26 WIN $2.31 PLC
969x runners | 222x winners (23%) & 267x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.54 WIN $3.07 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):