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BlackBook - Thursday, 1 June 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 1 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


ECHUCA - Race 1

OTHER

OUR RED MORNING (ex-RED IN THE MORNING) was purchased from NZ following two runs and based on her two Aus jump outs, she looks a nice mover despite having a bit of an ordinary head carriage. The 3yo daughter of Redwood closed super in an 800m jump out on May 1 when closing into 3rd and did the same in Heat 20 on May 15, also closing really nicely into 3rd place, this time over 1000m. In this jump out she settled last and closed down the outside of the field to make up big ground under minimal pressure in a really nice bit of work. Looks a nice filly.


ECHUCA - Race 2

OTHER

She was ordinary on debut but LOVIN’ BEV has now put together two nice jump out wins ahead of her return. She won a Wodonga jump out over 1000m back on Apr 24, doing it very easily, and backed that up with a win over 1100m in Heat 12 on May 9. There was not much mucking around here as Shirley Hunter took this 3yo filly straight to the front where she did it really easily throughout and as able to skip away around the bend, winning by ~3L in the second fastest time of the morning. This was super and love that they were over 1000m/1100m so if she can replicate this on raceday, she’ll run well.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Echuca, Race 1

#12 OUR RED MORNING (3) - G Eurell

Low/Medium.

Slightly worried about where she gets in the run from barrier 3 as she has gone back and ran on from last in her JO's, similar to her debut run in NZ so she may need a stack of luck late.


She does look to have a stack of talent though with a super turn of foot. She's a full-sister to Yosemite, who was handy enough herself as a 3YO when 4L off a Group 2 at Caulfield.


Despite the query on where she gets to in the run, we have loved her jump outs and at the price, happy to be with her.

Echuca, Race 2

#10 LOVIN' BEV (10) - P Burgun

Low/Medium.

This isn't the easiest maiden so hard to be really confident but as a result, we're getting a price so happy to be betting.


Her two JO's were super - the latest we've seen the 2nd horse run 4th in a 0-58 and the 3rd horse is an NZ import that won on debut, so she has nice enough trial form.


Hoping she goes to the front from B10 and is in it a long way!

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Echuca, Race 2

#8 CHAMPAGNE IN LACE (3) - S Zahra

BlackBook jump out comments:

CHAMPAGNE IN LACE went straight to the front in Heat 6 on May 19 and never looked like being beat as those alongside and behind her were pushed out just to keep up. The only horse making ground late was Winx’s little sister CITY OF LIGHTS and they cleared out the rest putting a gap on 3rd. She’s a 7-start maiden with only 1x career placing so form isn’t great but this was a nice jump out return.

Last Updated: 7:46am AEDT on Thursday, 1st June 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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