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BlackBook - Thursday, 1 December 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Thursday, 1 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


WANGARATTA - Race 2

OTHER

#3 STRIKING PLAINS looks to have a nice turn of foot, coming down the middle of the track in Heat 5 on Nov 23 after settling at the rear of the field to win quite comfortably. He had a quiet Nov 11 jump out as well so this bit of work where he was put under a bit of pressure and responded is certainly encouraging and will really top him off for his resumption. His first two career runs weren’t great, but he may have been gelded since then and he might have just needed time, now a 4yo gelding. Have liked his work at the jump outs, he can run well first up.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Wangaratta, Race 2


#3 STRIKING PLAINS (6) - A & S Freedman

Medium.

This looks a lovely race to kick off in. He's a 4yo taking on a bunch of 3yo's and he has the benefit of that debut prep where he has plenty of upside, but he certainly will get out further than the 1170m so bit of a query there. In saying that, it's a big straight at Wangaratta so he will have plenty of time to wind up and show that turn of foot he has shown at the jump outs ahead of this. He should be better than 8 and 11-start maidens...


Expect him to be running well here despite potentially needing further. Hoping he sits just off the speed from barrier 6 and looks to strike late, as long as he gets room in the straight to wind up.


Issue is the price at $2.50, so going to be looking at playing him late or at the SP - can't see him starting sub-$2 and if he does, we won't be backing.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Wangaratta, Race 1

#2 MR ROUQUIN (6) - B & JD Hayes

Super keen for the return of our boy here, first up after a bit of a break due to some maturity issues with his knees that flared up after his debut run.

His debut run has had some fair form with Kaido (2nd) coming out and winning by 2L next start while I'm Innocent (4th) and The Cassini (5th) both won in their second start following this race, I'm Innocent by 4.25L.


Here is the replay of his Nov 18 jump out and his Nov 7 official trial with some comments from JD.

He's not fully wound up for today and will certainly take improvement as he is a big boy, but he's also talented and think he will be in the finish anyway. Based on the ratings, if he runs to his debut, then he'll be hard to beat. The Ben Brisbourne debutant in Diesel is the big danger after some solid enough JO's but didn't beat anything in terms of quality, so needs to do it raceday.


We won't be recording him in any results as we won't be tipping any of the horses we own. We will send the voice update/thoughts in the Telegram for everyone.

Wangaratta, Race 3

#5 COMMANDS SUCCESS (2) - D Reid

He won a Nov 4 jump out (only just) but it was his work on Nov 14 at Seymour that really caught the eye, bolting in over 800m with ease. He’s jumped out just as well as anything else in this race and think he can run a cheeky race.


Going to monitor the price and will send in a message to the Telegram if we're playing late. Hoping he might get to ~$20 or so and we can chuck a ½ stake on him.

Last Updated: 8:39am on Thursday, 1st December 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1074x runners | 258x winners (24%) & 295x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.02 WIN $3.00 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)

Medium Confidence: 70x runners | 29x wins (41%) & 18x placings (67%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 64x runners | 11x wins (17%) & 23x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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