BlackBook - Sunday, 9 October 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 9 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.


BALLARAT - Race 1

OTHER

#11 ZOURATA was another 3yo that looked handy enough in his first jump out, taking out Heat 8 on Sep 16 in the fastest time of the morning. A son of Zoustar, he’s a good looking colt and one to monitor.


PENOLA - Race 1

OTHER

He’s with the smaller stable of Sue Murphy, but #2 HASTA LA MISSILE has the profile of a big name horse. A $140k MM Adelaide Yearling Sale purchase back in 2020, he is by Smart Missile and a full-brother to I’ll Have A Bit (a Group 2 winner over 1200m that was also 3rd in the Goodwood to Santa Anna Lane) being out of the well-performed Take All Of Me who herself is a daughter of the multiple group winner Tickle My. He looked super in Heat 4 on Sep 26, his first jump out back as the 4yo cruised to the line out wide when leading to win without ever being asked. The form from his debut prep isn’t glowing, but this was a lovely return.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ballarat, Race 1

#11 ZOURATA (1) - L & T Corstens

Medium.

Will he be hard to beat? Yes.

Will we be taking ~$1.15? No.


We highlighted him after his first JO and probably missed him in his second JO, which was also quite good. He's shown plenty of speed, so from barrier 1 we would expect B Shinn to take him forward, lead and be hard to chase down.

Penola, Race 1

#2 HASTA LA MISSILE (9) - S Murphy

Medium.

He's only had the 1x jump out ahead of his return, so it's hard to get a real guide as we certainly prefer the 2+ JO's for a better guide and extra fitness, but the 2nd horse from his JO in Unseen Ruler won a MDN yesterday at Hamilton so that's nice enough form...

It's hard to have much confidence, but the JO was quite good and can't imagine a Penola maiden having any stars so he should get his chance - the second favourite is a 24 start maiden (with only 6 placings) and the third favourite has had 6 starts for 0 placings.

He should just win this, happy to back.

Last Updated: 9:07am on Sunday, 9th October 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

689x runners | 210x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.21 WIN $2.30 PLC


'Other' Runners:

1017x runners | 239x winners (24%) & 278x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.34 WIN $3.05 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB