Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 9 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
WARRNAMBOOL - Race 1
OTHER
We’ve previously had an opinion of #1 AMALFI SPRITZ before his last preparation. He was lame first up and coughing before finishing a close 0.6L 4th second up. He was given more time and now gelded, resuming in Heat 6 on Nov 23 with a quiet but nice bit of work. He’s one to keep an eye on into another jump out - him resuming gelded is a big gear change.
This is exactly what we wanted to see from #1 AMALFI SPRITZ in his second jump out to really give us confidence he’s come back in good order as a gelding. He had a quiet bit of work on Nov 22 alongside subsequent winner Kyokushin, but his win in Heat 7 on Dec 1 was a very impressive bit of work to suggest he’s come back super. He pretty much led from start to finish and was easily able to put a couple lengths on the field when given some slight pushes in the straight before being eased down late. He’s talented, he just needs to put it together on race day now and this looks like the prep he’ll do it. Keen to follow.
WARRNAMBOOL - Race 3
OTHER
#6 FINANCE CHOICE has been costly in his three career starts so far, beaten by 0.1L on debut before finishing 4th at $1.55 and then a disappointing 6th prior to a spell. Now with Tom Dabernig following the split from Lindsay Park, the now 3yo gelding returned to win Heat 6 on Dec 21 in the clear fastest 800m time of the morning in a nice bit of work. He’s a half-brother Group 1 sprinter Indian Pacific, being by Extreme Choice so there is no doubt about the talent in the family. Keeping an eye on him, especially into another jump out and then into a country maiden.
Another nice win by #6 FINANCE CHOICE, taking out Heat 2 on Dec 29 but not sure of the quality of the jump out with 2nd place being a 10-start maiden. As a result, it’s hard to make him a highlighted runner but he’s certainly a runner to follow and watch for first up when he resumes. He is ready to go back to the races now.
OUR THOUGHTS
Warrnambool, Race 1 - AMALFI SPRITZ
Not entirely sure how MON CHEVAL is the favourite... Dec 10 jump out was ordinary, Dec 17 jump out was better but only fair and then the latest on Dec 31 wasn't anything special behind our runner on Tuesday, Chain.
Ratings wise, ANDRESS brings in the clear best last start rating at +1.4 with AMALFI SPRITZ the second best rating at +8.3.
AMALFI SPRITZ gets the cross over noseband on and the tongue tie on, both for the first time which are positive gear changes as he was a bit disappointing first up. From the first up run, What A Sham (1st) and Keppel Bay (2nd) have both since ran 2nd since but they did gap the field that day. He started $2.20 that day where he was vetted pre race but passed fit to run. He'll be better for that run now second up and although we thought he might need to step up in trip, one more run at the 1200m might be okay. John Allen takes the ride and barrier 5 is a lovely draw.
Going to give AMALFI SPRITZ one more chance. We were way too keen first up (3 unit high confidence play) to be jumping off after one run when he gets some gear changes and the run actually rated fairly. Low confidence play but want to have something on.
Warrnambool, Race 3 - FINANCE CHOICE
His latest two runs, he had genuine excuses - second up he knuckled very badly at the start and lost a lot of ground early so it was over early and then third up he race extremely wide (genuinely 6 wide) and tired late before a spell (he may have also been at the end of his prep). He's had some time off now, returned to beat WINTER PINTER in a Terang jump out comfortably.
EDGY ERA brings in the best last start rating at +1.7 and with Linda Meech sticking, expect her to go forward and take some catching. POCKET ROX went okay first up with some nice form from the race including 1st and 3rd both since winning. Thought the race really drops away after those three.
Think FINANCE CHOICE should be winning this, the worry is the price as the odds on quote looks quite thin but then again, it's an ordinary race that he should run very well in. As he's an 'Other' runner, we'll have a small bet and play the SP and look for a drift late, but it wouldn't surprise to see him shorten.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet (rare).
In addition, we're putting more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.
Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Warrnambool, Race 1
AMALFI SPRITZ ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $6.00 (TopSport at 9am)
Warrnambool, Race 3
FINANCE CHOICE ~ 1.00 units WIN @ Betfair SP
Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +27.93 units at Recommend Price | +61.56 units at Betfair SP
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