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BlackBook - Sunday, 8 January 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 8 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


WARRNAMBOOL - Race 3

OTHER

Tom Dabernig looks like he has a talented 3yo filly on his hands in the un-named #9 FROSTED x PRUDENCE PERFECTO. An $80k Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale Showcase purchase, she showed a nice turn of foot over the concluding stages of her first jump out on Nov 7, getting up to win along the inside late. She backed that up in Heat 11 on Nov 16, again winning and although a lot more quietly ridden here, she still showed that nice closing speed and looks to be a nice mover plus she clocked the second fastest time of the morning to add some merit to her performance. It’s always good to see that response to riding so you know what’s under the hood so on the back of these jump outs, expecting her to go well on debut wherever she goes, especially in a country maiden.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Warrnambool, Race 3

#9 KIKUSUI (6) - T Dabernig

Low/Medium.

Loved this filly's JO's when she was un-named. She's since had another JO on Dec 22 where she was solid and those 3x JO's will have her forward enough now on debut.


The issue is that we have 5x runners in this race and it's only a field of 8x... it's hard to split them but we did really like this filly and have her on top where she looks over the odds, so going to play her and leave the others.

Playing ½ this morning at $6, and the other ½ on SP.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Warrnambool, Race 3

#1 ROCK MY SOCKS OFF (4) - M Denham

BlackBook jump out comments:

STARRY LEGEND was a nice winner of another jump out, taking out Heat 5 on Dec 21 but the unplaced 7-start maiden in ROCK MY SOCKS OFF was far from disgraced when finishing 1L back in 2nd place with a huge gap to 3rd after travelling down the outside fence. He’s always been good at the jump outs and poor on race day, but he’ll be a big price.

Warrnambool, Race 3

#3 OUR FRED (10) - E Ewert

BlackBook jump out comments:

OUR FRED has lost by a combined 18.6L in his two career starts and despite also finishing last in a Dec 23 jump out, he went straight to the front in Heat 9 on Dec 30 and bolted in but did clock only average time for the morning. The blinkers did go on, so they might be a key gear change but treading carefully.

Warrnambool, Race 3

#8 ZEPHYRIOUS (2) - M Raymond

BlackBook jump out comments:

ZEPHYRIOUS was 3rd in a Jun 20 jump out behind winners Untouchable Ed and Sir Maximus in a solid bit of work. She was spelled following this, returning on Dec 22 where she settled last having jumped from the widest barrier and just slowly worked her way home out wide to finish 3rd, again behind Sir Maximus and Mahrez. There was not as much opposition in Heat 8 on Jan 3 and she just went straight to the front, cruised to the 200m and then was ridden out and finished off nicely enough, clocking the fastest time of the morning in the process. She’s had a couple of solid jump outs now ahead of her debut.

Warrnambool, Race 3

#10 ROCK DIAMOND (3) - C Maher & D Eustace

BlackBook jump out comments:

ROCK DIAMOND was untested in a Dec 9 jump out behind French Witness (ran 3rd on debut), but it was her work in Heat 6 on Dec 21 that really caught the eye. The 3yo filly jumped well to sit 3-wide and on speed but it was her work in the straight that was super impressive, extending away to win and going past the ridden out Maddie Raymond runner as if it was on a treadmill. She’s by Extreme Choice, which is a big tick, and on the back of these jump outs, she will be competitive on debut.

Last Updated: 8:32am (QLD) on Sunday, 8th January 2023.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 708x runners | 218x winners (31%) & 227x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.06 WIN $2.28 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1128x runners | 277x winners (25%) & 312x placings (52%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.11 WIN $2.99 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 47x runners | 28x wins (60%) & 13x placings (87%)

Medium Confidence: 94x runners | 39x wins (41%) & 28x placings (71%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 87x runners | 19x wins (22%) & 27x placings (53%)

Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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