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BlackBook - Sunday, 7 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 7 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


PAKENHAM - Race 1

OTHER

Another jump out win for #7 ZILZIE LAD, this coming over 1000m in Heat 4 on Apr 26 as he led throughout but was able to slightly extend away late. He was a solid winner of an Apr 11 jump out over 750m that caught the eye and we mentioned his debut prep form behind the likes of Skidamarink, Lady Di Di and Twin Perfection on debut and then Morpheus Bragi second up, both of which should stack up in most maidens. A $360k buy, he should be running well first up this prep.


PAKENHAM - Race 7

OTHER

#1 SCREAM was super in Heat 7 on Apr 26, his first jump out this prep having made the switch to the Yargi yard and coming down from NSW. The 3yo gelding cruised when sitting outside the leader, never asked for an effort and going to the line with a lot to offer. He’s only 55-rated but we’ll watch him into another jump out before resuming.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Pakenham, Race 1

#7 ZILZIE LAD (7) - P Gelagotis

Medium.

He has the form on the board behind Skidamarink and Morpheus Bragi from his debut prep. His jump outs ahead of his return have been super and like that the first was here on the synthetic at Pakenham, which was super, so we know he likes it here.


Think he goes forward and will take some catching - he should be hard to beat here and we're happy to be with him and betting

Playing late/SP as think they might come for the Clinton McDonald horse with Ben Melham having the one ride.

Pakenham, Race 7

#1 SCREAM (5) - A & A Yargi

Medium.

Know it was over only 700m, but thought his jump out was absolutely super and this is certainly a drop in grade from what he was racing in over in NSW.


The tongue tie goes on for his first run for the new stable where he finds a race where he's the only one with less than 10-starts, so he has all the upside and with that, think he's a bet in a well exposed race.

Last Updated: 9:34am AEDT on Sunday, 7th May 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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