BlackBook - Sunday, 6 November 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 6 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
BENALLA - Race 1
Nick Ryan has a talented 3yo on his hands in #2 DON’T CHANGE. He had quiet jump outs on Oct 7 and Oct 21, but really put the jets on in his win in Heat 7 on Oct 28, sitting out the back with a trail position before closing superbly over the top late and powering through the line, albeit under minimal pressure. Will note that he wasn’t wearing blinkers here which he has listed as a gear change in May, so they might go on for his first up run. He had the two runs as a 2yo in handy races but looks to have come back in super order as a 3yo and if he heads to a maiden first up, he’ll go well.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Benalla, Race 1
#2 DON'T CHANGE (3) - N Ryan
Really loved his jump outs, especially that latest one and he's drawn beautifully first up - he looks really well placed to be making a winning return. As noted, all those jump outs were without blinkers, which he has here for the first time so plenty of improvement there and the 3x JO's will certainly have him forward enough. Very keen to be with him here.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Sha Tin, Race 3
#4 ALLGREEKTOME (7) - D Hayes
He was with Allan & Jason Williams in Aus and jumped out under the name Allgreektome, with our original comments as follows:
A couple of talented 3yo gelding’s finished 1st and 2nd in Heat 4 on Dec 15. ALLGREEKTOME was 1st, defeating IL BRACCIO in 2nd by 3.5L and then a massive 6L gap back to 3rd, all while clocking the fastest 950m time of the morning in the process.
ALLGREEKTOME finished 3rd in his first jump out on Nov 29, the winner (Matao Ma) since running 2nd and the 2nd horse (Ghumaama) since winning on debut, which is handy jump out form. His win in this heat though was absolutely super and ahead of another one we have time for in Il Braccio. He jumped straight to the front and was way too speedy for them, given a couple of pushes in the straight but he did it well and was eased down late. He’ll run very well on debut (if he stays in Aus).
Sha Tin, Race 3
#5 BABY CRYSTAL (1) - J Size
He was with Allan & Jason Williams in Aus and jumped out under the name Lost In Roppongi, with our original comments as follows:
LOST IN ROPPONGI is potentially a nice horse, taking out Heat 7 on May 18 over the 1100m in the third fastest time of the morning but it was the way in which he won that impressed. The 3yo gelding took a sit behind the leaders, 2-3 wide throughout travelling beautifully under a hold before edging out around the bend and putting a couple lengths on the field quite easily without ever being fully asked. Thought his return jump out May 2 was encouraging when closing well for 3rd where we’ve seen Bella Sorellina (2nd) since win and Ocean Raider (4th) start $1.90 but only manage 6th. Wouldn’t surprise to see him end up in Hong Kong either.
Last Updated: 11:27am on Sunday, 6th November 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 697x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 222x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.14 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1050x runners | 253x winners (24%) & 285x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.18 WIN $3.02 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 34x runners | 23x wins (68%) & 7x placings (88%)
Medium Confidence: 60x runners | 27x wins (45%) & 16x placings (72%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 53x runners | 9x wins (17%) & 16x placings (47%)
Low Confidence: 10x runners | 3x wins (30%) & 2x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):