BlackBook - Sunday, 6 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 6 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.

SALE - Race 2

OTHER

The winner of Heat 6 on Jan 21 was #9 GRAPPA DI MOSCATO, a daughter of the talented Lake Geneva whose half-brother by Justify just sold for $600k at the Magic Millions last week. Hard to get a gauge on her return jump out on Dec 31 due to a runaway leader/winner, but this was a nice win in nice time with the blinkers on. She clearly didn’t come up last preparation, having only the one run where she started $2.60 but finished a distant 7th. She’s a Coolmore filly worth keeping an eye on.

SALE - Race 4

#7 GEE BEE ESS (3) - R Laming

We’ve been waiting for GEE BEE ESS to resume for a while now… she had a really nice Sep 13 trial prior to accepting in a couple of races but being scratched from all of them and then being spelled again. She returned in Heat 7 on Feb 21, being heavily restrained in the early stages to take a sit at the back of the field where she overraced with no where to go before hitting the line with pace once she got some room and was travelling much better than horses a lot more exposed than her. As mentioned after her last trial, she had a laceration on debut and then the jockey dropped the whip at the 250m mark second up but still managed to finish 2.8L off them in 4th. Would love to see another jump out prior to the first up run because of the long break, but if not, we’re still keen to follow her as she looks as though she would go very well.

OTHER RUNNERS - HONG KONG

Sha Tin, Race 6 - #8 LUCKY GOR (3)

KYLE jumped out behind Ranveer on May 12 before winning a May 19 jump out and then being given a 4 week break. He has bolted in and clocked the fastest 700m of the morning in Heat 11 on Jun 30 ahead of Monsters Inc. Bit of a query on him not being tested beyond 800m, so would like to see that before being confident on debut but still think he’s one to keep safe.

We had a query on KYLE being untested beyond 800m after bolting in on Jun 30, but the colt has now put that to bed with a 3L win in Heat 5 on Jul 22. He has a stack of speed, showing it to lead this heat right from the jump and he did it relatively easy all the way to the line. He was even extending late so he certainly had a bit to give late, all while clocking an above average time. Expect this 2yo son of Shooting To Win to lead and be hard to chase down on debut.

Sha Tin, Race 6 - #9 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY (12)

Archie Alexander might have a nice one here in EXCELLENT ARTIE. The 2yo gelding won Heat 3 on Jul 22 was easy as you would like. He jumped beautifully, pushed forward under a ridiculous hold from Dean Holland to take up the lead along the rail. As they entered the straight, he picked up 2-3L with ease and Dean even had a look over the shoulder wondering where they were. Kicked away from the 87-rated Barade who was given a push to win by 2.5L with a 3L gap to 3rd. He was never let go at any stage throughout this, similar to his earlier May 18 jump out. He looks talented.

OUR THOUGHTS

Sale, Race 2 - GRAPPA DI MOSCATO

As noted in our BlackBook notes, she jumped out super with the blinkers on and for whatever reason, didn't wear them first up over 1200m at Benalla where she finished a distant 4th after settling out the back and coming home okay. She looked to be beaten for pace and looked as though she needed further, which isn't a surprise considering her other three career runs have been at 1205m, 1400m and 1400m. The 2nd horse has since won and the 3rd horse has since finished 2nd while 5th (since 4th) and 6th (since 3rd) have run okay since too.

Second up now, she steps up to a more suitable 1400m and gets the blinkers on for the 'first time' but did wear them in the jump outs. Her first up run rated +10.5, which is the fourth last start rating of the race. Of her other two runs at 1400m, she was 2.9L off a Listed race at Flemington with the run rating -2.8 and is the best peak rating of the race while her other run she didn't quite come up despite starting $2.50 against the likes of Barb Raider and El Patroness.

This is her race and she should be winning this - if she can't get the win here, then it'll be a struggle to follow her again.

Sale, Race 3 - WHISPERING TYCOON

Late scratching due to the track downgrade.

Sale, Race 4 - GEE BEE ESS

GEE BEE ESS has had plenty of good, quiet and sneaky jump outs and trials. She’s had multiple one trial/jump out preps without getting to the races, so suspect she’s had a few issues. Had the one jump out again here prior to resuming and draws beautifully with barrier 3 as opposed to barrier 14 of 16 at Wangaratta on Saturday (where she was going to run but the meeting got abandoned...).

We have a Soft5 here with both of her runs being on rain effected tracks, the debut on a Soft5 and the latest run on a Heavy9. Ratings wise, her last rated +9.4 and is the third best last start rating but that back in October 2020, so she’s had a long time off. Prior to a race (where she was scr) at the end of last year the Stewards tweeted that she was given a long spell for maturity purposes.

SHOOTOOSE looks the main danger coming back in distance to 1100m after finishing 6th over 1300m behind Chain at Sandown - that’s the best last start rating (+5.3) and his first up run rating of +2.1 is the best peak rating. MR TRAFFICANTI had a jump out on Feb 25 and looked good there, making ground past the line alongside Chrome Angel who goes alright - first jump out on Feb 4 was probably fair but he can go well here. Outside of those two, this is not a hard race to resume in at all.

We were keen to back GEE BEE ESS in the early markets - if you didn't get any of the $11 in early markets, think the $5.50 looks about right and would be looking at taking that now that we have the final fields and track conditions on race morning.

OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.

Total outlay is 3.00 units.

Sale, Race 2

GRAPPA DI MOSCATO ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $3.40 (TopSport)

Sale, Race 4

GEE BEE ESS ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $11.00 (TAB) *early market bet*

Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -8.94 units at Recommend Price | +27.38 units at Betfair SP

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