BlackBook - Sunday, 6 February 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 6 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


BENDIGO - Race 2

OTHER

Nice return for the 3yo filly #11 SHOCKING HABIT, taking out Heat 3 on Jan 11 quiet comfortably in slick time. Her last start 3rd to Timson (since 3.2L off a Group 3) and Raging Monkey (since 1st in a MDN) reads well now, especially with them gapping 4th by 3.5L - 5th, 7th, 8th and 9th are all subsequent winners and the run rated +0.7. First jump out back, so she’s one to keep an eye on.


ARARAT - Race 3

OTHER

Tread carefully with #4 COLLISON as he’s one of those run and gun types that will usually win jump outs as he leads, which he has in both his career runs although his latest run was a 2nd to the talented Pinstriped. He missed the kick in his first jump out, jumping better in Heat 6 on Feb 1 as he took up his customary leading role to win quite comfortably in the end. See where he resumes, as a 10000m maiden on a tight turning track would be most suitable.


A $90k MM Yearling Sale purchase in her third jump out, #13 SUMMIT QUEEN jumped straight to the front in Heat 6 on Sep 14 and couldn’t be caught, leading from start to finish. She was given a little push at the top of the straight and kicked away from Respect The Wind late to record a nice win in the second fastest time of the morning.

*she hasn't had a jump out this preparation ahead of her debut here, unseen since this jump out in September last year - BIG watch, seems very deliberate to keep her a bit hidden - too short to play though, backing on trust only*

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Bendigo, Race 2 - SHOCKING HABIT (+ THE GLOBE)

SHOCKING HABIT brings in the best last start rating and best peaking rating, being +0.7 from her last start 3rd behind TImson that has brought some nice subsequent form - she started the $2.30 favourite that day. Her debut run rated +5.4 as well, which would be in the top 3 last start and peak ratings as well. She does have barrier 11 of 11 though...


THE GLOBE is the one she has to beat - due for a change of luck after all but breaking the maiden this preparation - draw's barrier 2 with the in-form Jye McNeil taking the ride for one of only two rides for the day.


Going to back SHOCKING HABIT and save on THE GLOBE - she's ~$3.90ish but after taking into account the saver, we're effectively getting $3.23 for SHOCKING HABIT to win, with insurance for the favourite.


Bendigo, Race 8

Below is the jump out of the Lindsay Park runner in GALLEON, in the white silks. He was purchased from NZ and looks like he has a bit of talent. He is nominated for the Australian Guineas so they obviously have a good opinion of him - expect him to go well here, head to the CS Hayes second up and then to the Australian Guineas (if he's good enough).


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 2.50 units.


Bendigo, Race 2

SHOCKING HABIT ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $3.90 (TopSport)

THE GLOBE ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $2.60 (TopSport)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +13.39 units at Recommend Price | +50.57 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.


PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY

Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!


She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!


We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...


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