Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 5 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
COLAC - Race 1
Super bit of work from #7 ALBANIAN THUNDER in Heat 10 on Feb 23. Unlike her first jump out on Feb 9 where she was ridden with no urgency and just cruised out the back, she was allowed to go forward and find the front where she then kicked away around the bend to open up a huge margin, bolting in over the 800m in the second fastest time of the morning, only slower than English Riviera. She started $21 SP on debut and ran 6th of 6 runners on a Heavy(9) track at Cranbourne, so we might get a nice price this prep as she looks to be in really nice order ahead of her return.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Colac, Race 1
#7 ALBANIAN THUNDER (6) - P Koumis
A 4kg claiming apprentice who has only had the 9x career rides (for 1x win) doesn't give us a stack of confidence for a runner we were really keen to back from the jump outs... but this is a horrible race.
So Indi Can Boogie was 2nd in the latest JO to Albanian Thunder so would be very surprised if she turned the tables here on raceday. Beyond Star was a clear last in a recent Mornington jump out on Wednesday - blinkers go on but couldn't have. The 5yo Kulina is a 12-start maiden - has race fitness and likely roles forward from B2 but she's had her chance to win in the past and hasn't. Super Socks faded late in only trial ahead of return after finishing a clear last on debut when lame.
She really should be winning a race like this - just needs to bring her jump out form to the races here and she will. Hopefully some positivity in the ride and she's off and gone with it early!!
Backing her here, she should win.
Hard to know what happens with price as really can't see any others being backed in so we'll play ½ now and ½ at SP.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Moonee Valley, Race 6
#1 STRETTO (12) - S Morrish
BlackBook jump out comments:
STRETTO is now with his third stable and his win in Heat 14 on Feb 23 was ridiculous, deadset trotting in. He’s not getting any younger, now a 6yo but out of his 19-starts, only his most recent 4x were as a gelding so it’ll be interesting to see how he goes now. This jump out suggests he’ll go alright…
Last Updated: 8:49am AEDT on Sunday, 5th March 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):