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BlackBook - Sunday, 5 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 5 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SALE - Race 1

OTHER

#11 TIZ ENUF was 2nd in a Jan 13 jump out at Flemington where he split Aditi (1st) and Karakarib (3rd) followed by subsequent winners Amur (4th) and Fistsoffury (5th), which is super jump out form. The 2yo filly was back at the jump outs, taking out Heat 6 on Jan 25 in impressive fashion as she went straight to the front and was simply too good late, clocking the fifth fastest 900m time of the morning. A daughter of Rich Enuff, she looks to have a stack of speed and quite keen to be keeping an eye on her ahead of her debut.


SALE - Race 3

OTHER

#5 RAMPANT LION will be one of the better maidens going around in Victoria once he resumes and if he heads to a maiden, he should be hard to beat. He’s had the two jump outs now, cruising to the line behind Delicate Babe on Jan 10 before then being ridden out to win Heat 5 on Jan 17, but not exactly breaking the clock in the process. Keeping a close eye on him ahead of his first up run.


SALE - Race 4

OTHER

Considering #13 SHECANMIXIT didn’t finish within 5L in any of her three races in her debut prep, she’s doing really well to be mixing it (pun intended) with some handy gallopers, the latest being a 2nd placing to I’m Thunderstruck in Heat 1 on Jan 16 where she sat outside the leader in Tobytoff where she fought him off and cruised to the line under minimal pressure over the 1000m. Expecting her to be a nice price first up, but she might have come on now as a 4yo although she is a home bred and they sold her mum 6 months ago so they can’t be expecting anything too special… still worth keeping her in mind.


GOULBURN - Race 5

OTHER

The winner of Trial 5 on Jan 24 was #1 AMADI, a 4yo gelding that we’ve been keeping a close eye on ever since he won an Apr 26 trial in NZ impressively. He’s gone 3/3 at the trials now in Aus, partly due to his friendly racing pattern as he likes to lead. He’ll go to the front on debut and should be in it a long way if he can find the right race, there is something about him that we like.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sale, Race 1

#11 TIZ ENUF (3) - A & S Freedman

Low/Medium.

She couldn't have done much more at the JO's considering the form from her first JO and her latest win. Drawn barrier 3 here with Ben Melham on board.


She seems a nice price at $4+ and happy to bet, she should be running well and is a really good winning chance. FYI - BETR have bonus back for 2nd and 3rd.

Meg's Magic looks the main danger/other chance.

Sale, Race 2

Hard race to get involved in as we can make a case for and against all three of our runners so at the prices of $2.50 to $4 for all three, we're going to sit out.

Sale, Race 3

#5 RAMPANT LION (5) - P Moody

Medium.

He's first up here after being last seen finishing 3.4L off the Blue Diamond. He's had a long spell, but the two JO's ahead of his return have been quite nice - the first saw him cruise to the line before being ridden out to win ahead of He's Handsome, who was a winner first up.


Jamie Kah on board and he should be hard to beat. The worry is the price as he's getting short, so look to play late.

Sale, Race 4

#13 SHECANMIXIT (11) - E Jusufovic

Medium.

Her form is horrible and she's drawn a bit sticky here with barrier 11, so a bit surprised she's favourite but it's an ordinary field and her JO's have been really good.


Expected a bit more of a price so going to want her to get out in price before we get involved from that barrier. At this stage, just a watch at sub-$4 but monitor to see if we can get ~$6+ late.

Ararat, Race 3

#16 FACTUALLY (3) - C Cassar

Low.

Her first two career runs were ordinary at best, but the blinkers went on for a recent Jan 11 trial and she went straight to the front and bolted in, clocking the third fastest time of the morning in the process - the 2nd horse from that trial has since won by 1L in a maiden. Interested to see if they deploy the same tactics here from barrier 3, get her straight to the front and look to run them off their feet.


At $20+, we can bet to find out.

Goulburn, Race 5

#1 AMADI (7) - B Baker

Low/Medium.

Really liked his NZ trials and have liked his NSW trials as well, albeit not as good as the NZ trials but still good where he's won all three of them.

The favourite in Shalatin has obviously had his chance to win and failed to (lol), where this gelding looks a nice horse on debut and while he may get out over further being by Shocking, happy to have a bet here.


Backing for ½ stake (or 2% of bank).

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sale, Race 2

#4 ANY ZOUWILLDO (8) - K & K Keys

BlackBook jump out comments:

Resuming as a gelding follow the one start as a colt, ANY ZOUWILLDO was ridden out in his first jump out on Jan 4 alongside Berry Bubbly and Silkstar (fair JO form) where he finished 2nd, which he did so without his blinkers. The blinkers went back on in Heat 11 on Jan 16 and they really switched him on, bolting in after travelling on speed and wide where he was then given a tickle at the top of the straight and extending away. Super jump out, he should be running well first up.

Sale, Race 2

#5 BELMASAI (3) - J Sadler

BlackBook jump out comments:

Lovely first jump out of the preparation from BELMASAI, coming over the top of the speedy and leading Sharna Star late in Heat 7 on Jan 24 to win in the fastest 800m time of the morning, putting a big gap on 3rd place too. This was only his first jump out this preparation having had another jump out in a previous prep on Sep 13 that saw him finish 2nd to Vegas Diva (who then ran 2nd in a MDN and 1st in a BM58) while ahead of Margie’s Boy in 4th, who won on debut. We’ll need to see another jump out from the 3yo son of Bel Esprit, but this was an encouraging performance especially considering he was only a $14k purchase.

Sale, Race 2

#6 BELVAGO (4) - R Griffiths & M de Kock

BlackBook jump out comments:

We liked the way BELVAGO moved in a Jan 23 where he finished 2nd, going to the line under an extremely strong hold. This was much the same in Heat 8 on Jan 30 as he sat midfield throughout and again went to the line under a strong hold, the jockey getting an absolute arm workout. The 3yo son of Bel Esprit ran 4th on debut at Pakenham where he was slowly away, settling last along the rail but coming home really strongly, clocking the meetings second fastest L600m and fourth fastest L400m. He’s a big watch first up in his second career preparation.

Last Updated: 9:40am AEDT on Sunday, 5th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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