BlackBook - Sunday, 5 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 5 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


WERRIBEE - Race 3

OTHER

Looks as though #5 MEDIA EMPIRE has come back as a gelding and has come back in good order, winning Heat 3 on Nov 16 just ahead of ZUPAFY. Forgiving his latest run, #5 MEDIA EMPIRE ran well in his first two career starts despite all three of these runs being on no better than a Soft7 track. This was only his first jump out back, but he looked to move well and he’ll certainly improve now with the gelding and potentially improve even more if he finds some dry tracks this time of year. One to follow.

Another jump out for #5 MEDIA EMPIRE, taking out Heat 2 on Nov 23 over the 1000m ahead of previous winners Francie Girl and Excuses Excuses. He was quietly ridden until the concluding stages when pushed and responded better than the other two gallopers who are better than maiden grade. This jump out was better than it looks on face value and another nice bit of work.


#9 CHALONNE PRINCESS was the pick of Heat 13 on Nov 26, extending away from the field over the concluding stages as she was given a couple of slight pushes. She was 2nd to Nordic on Nov 19 where she did it quite easily under a strong hold. She looks to move well enough to suggest she might have some talent.

#10 GLAMOURING won a jump out well prior to her debut but was always out the back and very wide after commencing awkwardly - happy to forgive that run as she was immediately put way. She returned to win Heat 16 on Nov 19 extremely well, clocking nice time in the process and was well held throughout. We just want to see one more good bit of work before making her a highlight runner.

It wasn’t quite the same jump out for #10 GLAMOURING in Heat 8 on Nov 26, sitting on speed throughout and being put under pressure in the straight where she didn’t close off quite as well as expected.


WERRIBEE - Race 8

OTHER

Quite a slick return win for the 3yo colt #14 DANAUSTAR, cruising to a win in Heat 2 on Nov 23 in slick time. There wasn’t a lot in terms of quality opposition, but he did it well out wide under a strong hold before extending away late with ease. Nice jump out.


BAIRNSDALE - Race 6

OTHER

#10 HALVOYA has always been a jump out star, her win in Heat 9 on Nov 8 being no different as she cruised to an easy victory ahead of her return. Not sure if she’s a betting proposition, but we should monitor what BM58 she pops up in first up.


SHA TIN - Race 3

OTHER

#5 LUCK STAR (named Who Wants You in AUS) kept up very well with a ridden out Frankie Two Angels in Heat 13 (48.18s) on Jul 10. The un-raced son of Zoustar was well held together for the entire heat and once the horse on the inside of him was stopped being ridden past the line, he overtook. Only his first jump out this preparation and a 2yo to keep an eye out for.

It's worth noting that Frankie Two Angels came out and won a Maiden at Sandown first up after this jump out.


SHA TIN - Race 8

OTHER

#4 SOLAR WINDS (named Solar Winds in AUS) with a super jump out win in Heat 4 on Nov 13 (grey/black). Jumped cleanly, took up the lead under a strong hold and then just continually extended away, albeit in slower time for the day. They paid big money for this 2yo colt, $900k to be exact, and he has shown some talent in his first jump out already. A must follow.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

We won't be playing DANAUSTAR or HALVOYA. They've jumped out well but was happy to steer clear and not bet.


We have a few ex-#BlackBooker runners from Aus who are making their debut at Sha Tin. The first is in Race 3, being LUCK STAR who was previous named Who Wants You in Australia and was with Hawkes camp - he jumped out well in Aus alongside Frankie Two Angels who won first up, but hasn't done much since then.

We then have SOLAR WINDS in Race 8, who debuted in Aus where he was 2nd in a Group 3 before then going over to HK. His jump outs were super and we had quite a big opinion of him. Interestingly enough, he was with the Hawkes camp and meets another ex-Hawkes runner that is also an ex-#BlackBook runner in SUPER FORTUNE (named Stardarmesta in Aus) who has already debuted and won in HK. Keen to see how they go in HK!


UPDATE: LUCK STAR is currently $81 (TopSport) and SOLAR WINDS $91 (Bet365) as at 11:30am. They're both worth something small ($) on...


Bairnsdale, Race 2 - SMOKIN' HOLLY

Ratings wise, if she runs to her debut then she wins this. It is the best last start rating and best peak rating at +6.0 with the next best peak being above +10.0 and form of being 4.4L off Ranveer and Our Heidi should stack up here.


Jump outs were good without being standouts, but she did have FOXICON covered quite easily in that latest jump out. The first jump out was alongside Cherrypick (who then ran 2nd in a MDN) with a big gap to 3rd that day.


Despite the wide-ish barrier, expect her to go forward to the front and be hard to chase down and beat.


Werribee, Race 3 - CHALONNE PRINCESS

Think this filly goes alright. She jumped out behind Nordic (who's a 67-rated horse) before winning a jump out ahead of Covert where she was doing her best work past the line. Daniel Stackhouse makes his way to Werribee for the two rides and he's the #1 jockey for Ben & JD Hayes.


MANHATTAN MAN won't win. MOCCA DIAMOND jumped out okay but happy to risk. Also happy to risk COAXIAL and KINGSLEY who come from the same race.


Comparing the jump outs of CHALONEE PRINCESS and the Zahra/Ellerton horses, having all jumped out on the same day. On Nov 19, it was CERRIDWYN (49.18s - last) and GLAMOURING (49.18s - won) clocking the same time, significantly faster than CHALONEE PRINCESS (51.11s - won). But then on Nov 26 we saw a very impressive CHALONEE PRINCESS (47.86s - won) have the other two covered quite easily, being CERRIDWYN (48.88s - 2nd) and GLAMOURING (48.93s - 3rd). PERITO MORENO jumped out behind CHALONEE PRINCESS on Nov 26 and was covered easily. Had CHALONEE PRINCESS as the pick of these four for us.


That leaves MEDIA EMPIRE, who looks the main danger as he now resumes gelded. Slight query on the 1100m though, with his best finish last preparation coming over 1300m. The form of Zupafy from that first jump out has really dimmed the confidence.


Happy to bet CHALONNE PRINCESS and thought the $4+ was good enough to take. It wouldn't surprise to see her start favourite here.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.50 units.


Bairnsdale, Race 2

SMOKIN' HOLLY ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $2.35 (TopSport at 8:45am)


Werribee, Race 3

CHALONNE PRINCESS ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $4.20 (Bet365 at 8:45am)


Overall: +14.41 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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