BlackBook - Sunday, 30 October 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 30 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
MORNINGTON - Race 3
#14 THE UNICORN (1) - G Waterhouse & A Bott
Expecting THE UNICORN to be hard to beat on debut. We mentioned her after previous Sep 22 jump out having also had a quiet Sep 2, where she was entered to run at Mornington on Thursday (yesterday) but scratched, likely due to the wide barrier and/or wet track. She was back at the jump outs, bolting in Heat 13 on Oct 7 as she led from start to finish along the rail under a ridiculous hold from Craig Newitt, winning by a big margin in the third fastest time of the morning. They don’t jump out much better than she did here and Craig Newitt is obviously keen to stick with her, riding her in this jump out having been booked to ride at Mornington before she was scratched. She was a $400k buy being out of Costa Viva, a Group 1 winning mare in NZ over 1600m, and she is going super ahead of her debut. She will lead so hopefully draws low and with Craig being a great front riding jockey, we are very keen to follow her on debut.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Mornington, Race 3
#14 THE UNICORN (1) - G Waterhouse & A Bott
She tired late on debut to just get nabbed on the line when sitting outside the leader - she even ran the meetings fastest 400-200m split. That debut run has rated better than anything in this race has produced.
She'll take plenty of improvement from that, second up here and sticking at 1200m certainly suits. Craig Newitt also sticks and the key is barrier 1 - she will lead and it'll be a matter of if they can catch her, which we doubt they will.
Very keen - think $1.50+ is her right price, but we don't want to be diving into $1.50 so monitor and play really late - bit of a personal preference one as some don't like to get involved in the shorties. She looks a good thing though.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Mornington, Race 1
#13 THUNDER FLASH (7) - B Masters
This is a low confidence long shot, but at $51, we've had worse ~$10 bets.
Got a big opinion of Pouandai, which is who this mare finished 2nd to in her Sep 26 jump out when putting a 2+L gap on Brechen in 3rd (since 2nd MDN).
She then jumped out on Oct 10, this time going one better and winning, with Game To Love in 3rd and she was a lot shorter price in this race before scratching (albeit going better).
Seen stranger things happen on a Heavy(10) at Mornington and happy to have a spec on this 5yo mare first up in her second career prep with a few gear changes. She's one of those ones you don't want to see win without anything on.
Last Updated: 8:57am on Sunday, 30th October 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 695x runners | 212x winners (31%) & 222x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.16 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1043x runners | 249x winners (24%) & 284x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.20 WIN $3.03 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 31x runners | 21x wins (68%) & 6x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 58x runners | 25x wins (43%) & 16x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 50x runners | 7x wins (14%) & 16x placings (46%)
Low Confidence: 9x runners | 3x wins (33%) & 2x placings (56%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):