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BlackBook - Sunday, 30 April 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 30 April 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


WERRIBEE - Race 1

OTHER

We couldn’t see #7 SAMANGU in her first jump out due to the fog, but she was on show in Heat 15 on Apr 24 as she won very impressively over the 800m down the outside of the track. The 2yo daughter of Written By had a beautiful run up and speed throughout but showed some nice late speed as she sprinted away over the concluding stages, really attacking the line. A $200k Inglis purchase, she looks a nice mover.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Werribee, Race 1

#7 SAMANGU (5) - G Begg

High - *no bet*

This is a very winnable race for this 2yo filly on debut following a very slick jump out where she did it very nicely down the outside to win.


She looks the clear top pick here and is going to be awfully hard to beat, but it's only a field of 4x and as a result, she's $1.60, which is way too short and we can't be betting that.


She's a no bet at the price, so we'll monitor to see if she gets to ~$2 late.

Bendigo, Race 8

#6 FAR ENOUGH (3) - D Short

Low/Medium.

This horse has been kind to us in the past and hoping he can be again here - boasting a first up record of 3: 2-0-0 and he was super at the jump outs again, leading throughout on Apr 4 before being overrun late only by a Group 1 winner in Western Empire.


He won on debut here over 1000m for us and we're hoping he can do the same first up for his 8th start as a 5yo gelding - he's drawn well with barrier 3 to do so where he should get a lovely trailing position throughout and hopefully be too strong late.


Happy to bet - backing ½ now at the ~$2.50 this morning and the other ½ on SP.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sha Tin, Race 2

#5 BEAUTY DESTINY (7) - F Lor

BlackBook jump out comments:

Clocking the fastest 900m time of the morning was the un-raced Star Turn gelding in SPITZER, taking out Trial 14 on Oct 4. This 3yo gelding was away cleanly, sitting outside the leader throughout the heat before then showing a lovely turn of foot over the concluding stages to put him away with ease. This was his first trial this prep, but second of his career having had a trial back on Apr 29 that saw him sit to the rear of the field before showing that turn of foot late to run over the top of the now Group 1 place Zou Tiger. A $140k purchase, he looks a nice moving gelding that will likely have another trial before debuting.


His HK trials were elite as well - won on Mar 7, Mar 24 and Apr 18, all in superb fashion with Zac Purton on board who sticks here for the debut.

Last Updated: 9:43am AEDT on Sunday, 30th April 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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