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BlackBook - Sunday, 29 January 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 29 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


GEELONG - Race 3

OTHER

#1 AMERICAN LIAISON looks to have come back in good order as a gelding following a 4-start first prep as a colt, failing to break the maiden but placing in 3 out of the 4 runs. He cruised to the line last week in a Jan 13 jump out but was asked for more of an effort in his win in Heat 5 on Jan 20. He was a touch slow away and settled at the rear of the field but got a nice run through the pack in the straight and was able to pick up the leader in Swerving quite well late as he was asked to extend. Looking at his form, it’s super - he was 5th on debut behind 4-subsequent winners (such as Midtown Boss and Fast Witness) before then running 2nd to Street Conqueror, 3rd to Aft Cabin and Bel Air and then 2nd to Muramasa (since 2nd in G3 and 5th in Derby). That’s some super form and taking into account some nice jump outs and the gelding, he more than has a maiden in him this prep.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Geelong, Race 3

#1 AMERICAN LIAISON (2) - M Ellerton

Medium.

The form from his debut is really nice, add in the fact he's resuming gelded here and his JO's were good (the latest in front of Nicodemus), he looks well placed here and should be running well.


Glad Irish Crickets is scratched, but King's Chamber has the same form lines so he's obviously a danger. He's Handsome has been solid at the JO's, his first was behind Snow Falcon who we'll back on Tuesday.


We're keen to be with AMERICAN LIAISON, he's the top pick for us. Think he starts closer to ~$3 though, so happy to wait and play late, or back ½ now and ½ SP.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Geelong, Race 2

#11 RUE DE RIVOLI (1) - T Busuttin & N Young

BlackBook jump out comments:

RUE DE RIVOLI closed quite well from the rear of the field to finish 2nd in Heat 13 on Jan 9 when she was pushed out. A 3yo daughter of Highland Reel, she has some nice closing speed that is worth keeping an eye on but she may get out over further.


No bet - think she's going to need further and she hasn't led in her JO's, so barrier 1 is a worry as she'll be back and need a bit of luck.

Geelong, Race 4

#10 CHENZEL (12) - B & JD Hayes

BlackBook jump out comments:

In her third jump out, CHENZEL bolted in over the 1100m in Heat 2 on Jan 11. The 4yo mare went straight to the front, leading throughout before stealing a margin around the bend and then putting a further 6L gap on 2nd place, all with ease. She was a very close 3rd in a Dec 21 jump out after also leading throughout, dissimilar to her middle jump out on Jan 4 where she was pushed out late to finish 2nd. A $300k Snitzel mare who was previously with Ciaron Maher in Sydney before coming down to Vic with Lindsay Park, she looks in good order ahead of her return.


No bet - barrier is a big worry having drawn 12 of 13 here, which is going to be a bit to overcome.

Last Updated: 8:48am AEDT on Sunday, 29th January 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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