BlackBook - Sunday, 28 November 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 28 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
WARRNAMBOOL - Race 2
OTHER
Looks as though MEDIA EMPIRE has come back as a gelding and has come back in good order, winning Heat 3 on Nov 16 just ahead of #9 ZUPAFY, who we can also follow from this heat.
#9 ZUPAFY is another Kylie Vella horse that just went through the motions, not asked for an effort or anything but almost pinched the win here without trying. Only his first jump out too, but looks to move well and is a good looking horse.
TRARALGON - Race 3
OTHER
#5 MAGIC DRUM bolted in Heat 3 on Nov 12 in the fastest 800m of the morning, which was also above the overall benchmark time. She ran 2nd first up last prep (on debut) before pulling up lame and then being spelled immediately. On the back of this we probably can expect her to show a bit first up this preparation, similar to her debut prep, and she might be at a price being from a small stable with the trainer as the sole owner.
Three jump outs now for #11 PRINCESS ANNALISE who has been untested in all, her 3rd in Heat 8 on Nov 15 no different. She travelled on speed here and just cruised though the line under a strong hold as those around her were ridden out, and she was far from disgraced, which is similar to most of her jump outs. Luke Oliver has been a little hit and miss recently (2% Win SR from his last 50 runners), but there might be something under the hood we’re yet to see so she’s worth keeping in mind.
OUR THOUGHTS
Warrnambool, Race 2 - ZUPAFY
No surprise to see S Vella booked to ride the K Vella trained galloper. He's only had the one quiet jump out so we only have a small sample size to work with and are going to have to back on trust. He did look really nice in that jump out though and certainly looked as though he had a motor under the hood that he could've shown late.
Ratings wise, he won't have to be a superstar to win this. The best ratings last start and peak come from NURIYA at +3.5 followed by BAD INFLUENCE (+5.0) and FINNEAS (+5.3).
He was well backed in the early markets having opened at $11 on TAB. Think we can have a low confidence play on him here on debut. KADENA and BAD INFLUENCE look the ones to beat, but it wouldn't shock to see him go close. Happy to back.
Traralgon, Race 3 - MAGIC DRUM + PRINCESS ANNALISE
PRINCESS ANNALISE has jumped out well but wasn't a standout and has largely been untested so it'll be more a spec bet as it's hard to bet with confidence on the back of these bits of work.
Barrier 1 looks a lovely draw fo Jason Maskiell to take MAGIC DRUM straight to the front along the rail and give them something to chase.
Ratings wise, A PENNY SPENT (+4.9) and VICTORY COLOURS (+7.5) bring in the best last start ratings with MAGIC DRUM (+13.0) third on the list, but his debut rated +6.9 so if he can replicate that first up here, he'll go close.
At the prices, being MAGIC DRUM $3 and PRINCESS ANNALISE $4.20, we're happy to have no bets and let them going around. MAGIC DRUM on top but , but we would've preferred to see two jump outs in order to be playing with any confidence at the price.
OUR BETS
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 0.75 units.
Warrnambool, Race 2
ZUPAFY ~ 0.75 units WIN @ $5.50 (TAB & TopSport at 10:01am)
Overall: +12.21 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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