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BlackBook - Sunday, 28 August 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 28 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.



WYONG - Race 1

OTHER

Clocking the second fastest 900m time of the morning was Libertini’s full-brother, #2 HAWAII FIVE OH in Trial 16 on Aug 12. The 3yo colt just cruised out of the gates, sitting midfield and wide throughout before showing a super turn of foot in the straight to get over the top and win. He went through his gears effortlessly under the guidance of Nash Rawiller, who was on board for his previous Aug 2 which was much the same, sitting midfield and just cruising to the line when finishing a close 2nd. He looks to be a talented colt that comes from a (obviously) talented family, so a huge watch on his debut.


MOE - Race 2

OTHER

No surprise to see #6 TREOTTO win another jump out, taking out Heat 11 on Aug 15 over the 760m to back up his previous Aug 9 official trial win having been scratched at the gates on July 31 when attempting to return to the races that day at Bendigo. He’s now had the 9x career jump outs but only the 2x career runs when 2nd and 4th in maidens, which is slightly worrying in the terms of becoming a pure jump out star. Monitor where he pops up and the market support he may (or may not) attract.

 
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Wyong, Race 1

#2 HAWAII FIVE OH (1) - M Freedman

High.

Nash Rawiller heads to Wyong for only the 1x ride on a Sunday before then heading home.

Trials were absolutely superb and we're expecting a big debut on the back of those. We're slightly worried about where he gets to in the run from barrier 1 but it's only a small field and expect Nash to give him a gun run. He's well found in the market, but he should be winning this on debut.

Moe, Race 2


#6 TREOTTO (9) - M Kent

Low.

He's jumped out well, as he usually does, but he's hard to trust on raceday - he's been scr at the gates twice and been a beaten at ~$3 twice. We're not keen on taking ~$2 about this gelding here with that past record and not keen with J Beriman on board.

A win wouldn't surprise, but we'll be looking elsewhere (see below - WatchList).

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Moe, Race 2

#2 COSTLESS (12) - J Sandhu

He resumed gelded for the new stable in Julius Sandhu and ran a solid 2nd to Bews. Prior to this run he had only the 1x JO ahead of Demon Blood and Generation (with a big gap to 4th), so he's been around some nice ones.

He will take plenty out of that run and should show plenty of improvement now second up here and it's certainly good to see Jamie Mott sticking and heading to Moe for only the one ride.

We'll be leaving Treotto and backing COSTLESS at ~$4+, he looks overs and happy to be with him - back to collect ½ of what you normally would (e.g. 2%).

Last Updated: 9:04am on Sunday, 28th August 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

679x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.31 PLC


'Other' Runners:

966x runners | 221x winners (23%) & 266x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.57 WIN $3.08 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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