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BlackBook - Sunday, 27 November 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 27 November 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


TRARALGON - Race 2

OTHER

#10 MISSILE MEG recorded an easy win in Heat 12 on Nov 14 as she stepped up to 1000m. She was ridden with no urgency in the early stages, cruising out the back before letting down in the straight to go straight past the rest of the field as if they were on a treadmill. Following a very quiet Oct 31 jump out over 740m on the synthetic track, this was nothing short of dominance and she did clock the third fastest 1000m time of the morning in the process. A 3yo daughter of Star Missile, she was super here.


WARRNAMBOOL - Race 2

OTHER

The 5yo #3 ITALIAN VIKING has now had the 2x jump outs ahead of his return from an extended 55-week spell having been last seen in September 2021. He was hard held when 3rd in a Oct 11 jump out, but was allowed a little more reign in his win in Heat 7 on Oct 27 over 850m, clocking the second fastest time of the morning in the process as he travelled beautifully in behind the speed before cutting the corner and closing well. He’s had the two career starts, both saw him finish 2nd and both at Moprhetville in Saturday races, so if he resumes here in VIC in a mid-week country week and he’s returned well enough from that long spell, he’ll go well. Don’t want to be diving into odds-on though as that long break is a definite query.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Warrnambool, Race 2


#3 ITALIAN VIKING (1) - T & C McEvoy

Low/Medium.

Scratched from a much harder race on Wednesday to run here where he's drawn beautifully with barrier 1 to either lead or get a lovely spot in behind the leaders.

Slight query on the 4-week break between his latest jump out and his resumption here, but based on them and his previous form (albeit over a year ago), he should be running really well.


That break is a bit of a query and has scared us, especially at the price so only going to back him, but ½ stake.

Traralgon, Race 2

#10 MISSILE MEG (5) - J Price

Medium.

Her jump outs have been super and really like that the latest was over 1000m and on a Heavy(10) track, which will have her primed for the 1100m here. She's drawn beautifully with barrier 5 and finds a race with no standouts where she can run a really good race on debut.

Last Updated: 8:36am on Sunday, 27th November 2022.

 

Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):

'Highlighted' Runners: 699x runners | 214x winners (31%) & 223x placings (63%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.13 WIN $2.29 PLC


'Other' Runners: 1070x runners | 258x winners (24%) & 293x placings (51%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.05 WIN $3.00 PLC


Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):

High Confidence: 38x runners | 24x wins (63%) & 8x placings (84%)

Medium Confidence: 69x runners | 29x wins (42%) & 18x placings (68%)

Low/Medium Confidence: 61x runners | 11x wins (18%) & 21x placings (52%)

Low Confidence: 11x runners | 3x wins (27%) & 3x placings (55%)

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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