BlackBook - Sunday, 27 February 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 27 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


BALLARAT - Race 1

OTHER

#6 ZAMBORGHINI has had two similar jump outs and trials now, travelling wide and closing well in both his jump out on Feb 2 and his trial win in Heat 7 on Feb 7. The only knock on his trial today is that it was ran in 46.72s, the slowest of 11x 800m trials and 1s slower than the day’s average. He was a $1.25m purchase at the Inglis Easter Yearling sale, so there will certainly be lofty expectations on this 2yo colt.


BALLARAT - Race 4

OTHER

Matt Cumani looks to have a 3yo gelding with a bit of talent in #1 JAJA DING DONG who has yet to be let go in either of his jump outs but has still closed the super. The first was on Feb 3 where he sat 3-4 wide without cover throughout but was still able to close under no jockey pressure down the middle of the track. The latest was in Heat 13 on Feb 15 where he sat just off the pace under a strong hold and again closed super under no pressure. He looked as though he might have a motor hidden under there… big watch.


BALLARAT - Race 8

OTHER

#12 D’JUMBUCK got the better of a resuming HOLT late in Heat 8 on Feb 14 where they clocked the fastest time of the morning and put a gap on 3rd. #12 D’JUMBUCK had the benefit of being mid-prep, so there was residual fitness there and it should be no surprise to see him jump out well - he can go well in a BM64/BM70 next start.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Ballarat, Race 1 - ZAMBORGHINI

No doubt that LASCARS deserves to be favourite, just not sure he deserves to be this short (although it is a very small field). Second up here after running in the Blue Diamond prelude with the blinkers going on, he looks well placed but couldn’t possibly take the sub-$1.50.


ZAMBORGHINI’s latest trial saw him run over the top of Fission (since 1st by 1.2L at Bendigo) and Latvian (who was 6th in the Talindert Stakes). Would’ve loved to have gotten the $7.50 opening price about him but was just too slow and he’s now at about the right price.


MAGNACE jumped out okay on Feb 4 and Feb 14 but will need to improve to win this. Looks a genuine two horse race between LASCARS and our runner in ZAMBORGHINI and going to have ZAMBORGHINI on top. In saying that, not keen to dive into the $2.40 for ZAMBORGHINI so will leave this race alone.


Ballarat, Race 4 - JAJA DING DONG

He's been scratched from a few races over the past week or so before popping up here at the home track of Ballarat, which seems very deliberate from the stable. He's drawn barrier 10 of 12 which isn't ideal, but this should allow him to get some clear galloping in the straight and show that late closing speed he's shown in his jump outs.


STROMBOLI clearly deserves to be favourite, his three runs rating -1.1, +1.3 and -0.8 which are better than anything else in the race. With barrier 4 and Jye McNeil booked to ride over 1200m here, he is going to be very very hard to beat.


Happy to have a small bet on the ~$19 we can get for a small spec. Not confident he beats the favourite but think he can run a nice race at good odds.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 0.50 units.


Ballarat, Race 4

JAJA DING DONG ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $19.00 (TopSport)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -0.44 units at Recommend Price | +35.88 units at Betfair SP

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