BlackBook - Sunday, 24 October 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 24 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SALE - Race 1

#3 OUT OF ISOLATION (2) - G Eurell

OUT OF ISOLATION was 2nd to Aidensfield in a 2YO Handicap on debut back in May 2020. He gapped National Choice in 3rd that day by 2L, with that runner going on to place at Group 3 level while Highly Discreet was 3L back in 4th and was Group 3 placed at her next start. A long spell for this now-4yo though, returning to finish 3rd in Heat 6 on Sep 20 in a very impressive bit of work. He jumped cleanly but was taken back and ridden quiet, coming up the inside in the straight and hitting the line under no jockey pressure at all. He looked a class above this lot, even with the heat being the second quickest of the morning. Expect to see another bit of work considering the 71-week spell, but super keen to follow him into his resumption.


OUT OF ISOLATION is talented. The 4yo gelding returning to the jump outs in Heat 9 on Oct 11 (red and white) following his quietly ridden Sep 20 jump out when 4th. In this heat however, he sat off them before powering home down the middle of the track and looked as though he was going to explode with a super turn of foot. He was a bit green, but he closed super alongside Don’t Doubt Nic and they had a bit of 3rd and 4th. Wouldn’t surprise us to see him making a winning return following his 71-week spell. Keen to follow, he goes well.


OTHER

Margin wise, SOUND BUFF was an easy winner of Heat 6 on Oct 11 but thought the 5yo mare back in 4th did it extremely easy to the line and looked super to the line. A full-sister to Hunamosa, #8 HUNSANGEL just cruised throughout this heat and went to the line untouched while those around her weren’t doing it as easily. We’ve seen this mare at a few jump outs now, the latest prior to this was on Jul 12 when 2nd to a ridden out Major Impact. Only her first jump out, keeping an eye on her.


SHA TIN - Race 1

#7 SUPER FORTUNE (3) - A S Cruz

Price tag wise, STARDARMESTA is certainly near the top having been a $1 million purchase at the 2019 Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale. He had a couple of jump outs as a 2yo in May/June, but didnt quite make it to the races and now returns as a gelding where he looked quite nice when 2nd to the handy Yes Baby Yes in Heat 11 on Feb 5 (orange). He sat on speed in this and they ran nice time for the day too - it was an encouraging bit of work. Look for another jump out before he debuts, he’s got a lot to live up to price tag wise!


STARDARMESTA could be a load job on debut. Following that Feb 5 jump out, he has bolted in to win Heat 3 on Feb 12 (orange) with absolute ease. The most encouraging part was his last 200m or so where he put a gap on some nice gallopers with ease. Big fan.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Sale, Race 1 - OUT OF ISOLATION (& HUNSANGEL)

He's very well named and certainly an omen bet on our first weekend out of lockdown!

Very keen on OUT OF ISOLATION and he draw's lovely with barrier 2. He's had a long break but he has the 2YO form on the board from his debut prep and he has had a couple of nice jump outs to get him ready for this.

Ratings wise, it is not even close. His debut rated -7.0 and is clearly the best last start benchmark rating coming into this with the next being 1.7...


HUNSANGEL looks like she might be able to run a cheeky race but probably isn't up to the class or level of OUT OF ISOLATION.


The worry is the price. We won't be diving into $1.55 but will monitor to see if we can get $2 late and if we do get $2+ late, look to play with a saver on HUNSANGEL.


Sha Tin, Race 1 - SUPER FORTUNE

Known as STARDARMESTA in Australia, we thought this guy would've won some handy races in Aus but he was subsequently sold to Hong Kong and makes his debut now. They would've paid a fortune for him considering he was a $1m colt himself in Aus.

Flemington jump outs were super and his Hong Kong trials were also super, winning his latest on Oct 12 ahead of Sparkling Dragon (career record of 28: 7-1-7) and California Spangle (undefeated career record of 2: 2-0-0).


Wait and see the price, but he looks to have some talent and keen to back him (if odds are okay) even without having much idea about who he'll be racing against.


UPDATE: no value in the $2 to $2.10 available so we'll let him go around without anything on (officially). Expect him to run well though so maybe a multi with OUT OF ISOLATION at Sale is the go?


OUR BETS

We're trialling a new 'units' system to have a new way of recording and showing our bets and results. As a rule of thumb, we'll follow the following staking:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall: + 0.40 units (since 21 Oct, 2021)


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