BlackBook - Sunday, 23 October 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 23 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
SALE - Race 1
OTHER
We had #4 GOLD GOVERNOR in the BlackBook prior to his debut run where he led but was overran late to finish back in 4th. Given a 3-week freshen up, he returned for a big win in Heat 3 on Oct 12 over the 900m with the key gear change being the blinkers going on and there is no doubt that he has improved since his debut. Lovely tick over jump out and expect an improved performance second up with the blinkers going on. Worth giving another chance.
SALE - Race 3
OTHER
#14 SKIDAMARINK is a $1.2M filly as a half-sister to Extreme Warrior and Thrillster, so there is no shortage of expectations on this filly upon her resumption. She was okay on debut as a 2yo when 4th, but we haven’t seen much form (if any at all) come from this race so she will certainly have to improve. She returned on Aug 31 over 900m on the synthetic where she was only fair at best, but she improved into her Sep 21 jump out on the grass where she won quite comfortably when travelling well along the rail. She went well again in Heat 9 on Oct 5, travelling under a strong hold when wide throughout but closed well in the straight, especially over the final 50m or so and including past the line. We won’t be diving in, but she’s a filly worth monitoring.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Sale, Race 1 | |
#4 GOLD GOVERNOR (4) - C Brown | Low/Medium. As expected, the blinkers go on and this gelding steps up from 1200m to 1400m having drawn lovely with barrier 4, all of which suit and means we should see a much improved performance - the tick-over jump out was super. Looks an even race without a real standout, so happy to have an E/W bet on him at $12/$3.50. |
Sale, Race 3 | |
#14 SKIDAMARINK (7) - A & S Freedman | Low. Thought his jump outs were solid, but didn't expect him to pop up a ~$3.50 favourite and especially not in a race that has some depth. CANNON has some nice form and gets the blinkers on for the first time. LADY DI DI has form behind Katsu, who has since won again. TWIN PERFECTION jumped out alongside Typical You who won very easily on debut at Cranbourne. Plus some others have claims too. Not a race we're keen to get involved in. He can win, but happy to let him win without us. |
Last Updated: 7:57am on Sunday, 23nd October 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 694x runners | 211x winners (30%) & 222x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.17 WIN $2.29 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1038x runners | 247x winners (24%) & 283x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.22 WIN $3.03 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 30x runners | 20x wins (67%) & 6x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 58x runners | 25x wins (43%) & 16x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 46x runners | 6x wins (13%) & 15x placings (46%)
Low Confidence: 8x runners | 2x wins (25%) & 2x placings (50%)
STAKING
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB