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BlackBook - Sunday, 23 July 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Sunday, 23 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SALE - Race 2

BRIER backed up his Jul 10 win in the fastest time of the morning (clocking 47.64s vs the second fastest of 48.44s by Masterful) when winning Heat 5 on Jul 17 ahead of Three Rings, whose got some talented himself. This 3yo gelding got to the front with ease in the early stages, travelling comfortably but the most pleasing part was the fact he did it at both ends, responding to riding late to win and put a margin back on the majority of the field that included several past winners. With this being his second jump out this prep and doing both in nice style in quick times, expect him to feature prominently on debut.


That’s three jump outs now for MONTEVERDE and his work in Heat 4 on Jul 10 was his best of a good bunch, cruising on speed under a hold throughout where only Masterful and Teser got the better of him late. This was similar to his Jun 26 jump out where Masterful also got the better of him late along with Rich Divinity having cruised to the line in a previous 650m Jun 12 jump out. The 4yo gelded son of Swiss Ace has been kept relatively under wraps and looks a nice mover, certainly one to monitor on debut.


REDOUTE'S NIGHT cruised to the line out the back in a May 15 jump out amongst some raced horses, but there was no hiding him in Heat 2 on Jun 12 as he tracked Katsu throughout and then was powering to and through the line while making ground on Katsu and going past No Way Ever and Corkscrew with ease while under a hold. Adding to this while watching past the line, he was still powering and even got past Katsu late in a superb bit of work while they also clocked the fastest time of the morning. He’s an un-raced 5yo gelding but on the back of this jump out, think we’ve seen the reason as to why they have been so patient with him and it looks like they’re about to be rewarded. Cindy Alderson also purchased his half-sister at the 2022 Inglis Gold Yearling Sale, so no doubt they have an opinion of the family as well. He’s a must follow, he looks very talented and especially for a country maiden that he’ll go to on debut (and likely win).

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sale, Race 2

Tough race for us here - we were super keen on REDOUTE’S NIGHT on debut, he ran well enough when 2nd and will be sure to be improved second up with a better barrier. BRIER has jumped out super and think he’s the one to beat, but MONTEVERDE has also been solid and looks an outside chance.


Backing BRIER, saving on REDOUTE'S NIGHT and MONTEVERDE (if gets out in price).

#2 BRIER (9) - E Jusufovic

Medium.

#6 MONTEVERDE (11) - A Rae

Low/Medium.

#7 REDOUTE'S NIGHT (4) - C Alderson

Low.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sale, Race 1

#10 WARLORDS (10) - T Busuttin & N Young

BlackBook jump out comments:

It was an easy win for the 2yo colt WARLORDS in Heat 7 on Jun 26, winning nicely in quick time as he led from start to finish along the rail and backed up his Jun 5 win where he went to the line alongside a 3yo who has since ran 6th in a MDN. He was a $400k buy for Busuttin and the well known Kheir and O’Neill colours where he looks a nice mover.

Last Updated: 7:58am AEDT on Sunday, 23rd July 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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